Our favourite way to forecast the US jobs numbers
This remains our favourite way to predict the US labour data release.
After last month's non-farm payroll prediction miss, this month we are using a different cat #NFPguesses pic.twitter.com/CwwyVhsYas
— Craig Drake (@csdrake) February 7, 2014
Last time this was tried Bob the cat was well off – but that's because her options were restricted from 150,000 to 230,000.
Nonfarm payroll additions came in at a seasonally adjusted 74,000 for December.
While the method's accuracy may be a little suspect, human analysts got it wrong as well. They had been expecting a number around 196,000.
This month we're hoping that Geoffrey Boycat will be closer to the mark. He expects job additions of 170,000 this month.
My analyst @GeoffreyBoycat has predicted this month's US non-farm payroll numbers at 170k #NFPguesses pic.twitter.com/JMeFuaSQbd
— Craig Drake (@csdrake) February 7, 2014
Consensus estimates suggest that the US economy will have added 185,000 jobs in January. We'll have the number at around 1.30pm today.
Update: Geoffrey beat the humans this month