When you look at the England and Ireland squads on paper ahead of tomorrow’s Six Nations match in London, I do think that the away side might nick it.
It’s all about what is going on up front and I think that’s where Ireland have the edge.
They’ll no doubt be targeting England’s line-out, which hasn’t been perfect this year, and have picked the likes of Peter O’Mahony for that exact reason.
In the front row you have two props in Kyle Sinckler – for England – and Irishman Tadhg Furlong who are among the best tightheads around at the moment.
Both of them are solid scrummagers but they have a wider skill set, and Furlong was mightily impressive in the autumn when he was sidestepping backs.
It should be a cracker at Twickenham tomorrow but I do think, even in the backs, Ireland will be slightly more confident.
England have gone for a midfield combination of Henry Slade and Joe Marchant, which is not exactly a major surprise.
I think Marchant is one of the in-form centres in the Premiership at the moment. He’s brave and he’s pretty powerful too, and that small stint in New Zealand with the Blues was a stroke of genius – it has benefited his game hugely.
That said, most fit English centre partnerships wouldn’t be too much of a match for Garry Ringrose and Bundee Aki – plus Robbie Henshaw on the bench.
Ireland just have the power to get over the gainline across the XV, where England probably don’t.
We must give a word to Johnny Sexton, too. He has signed a new central contract which will take him to next year’s World Cup.
Sexton was the best No10 in the world at one point, and he still oozes class, and is so far ahead of other Irish fly-half options that I am not so sure what they’ll do once he’s moved on.
Back to the here and now, though, and to this evening’s huge clash in Cardiff. Wales take on France at the Principality, and while it’s set to feature quite a few empty seats due to ticket prices and kick-off time, it could be France’s biggest match.
A win here puts them in a strong position going into their final game next weekend – against England – while a win for Wales could blow the competition wide open.
I think France will win. They’re just too good at the moment and Wales continue to offer little of their own.
As for the other game tomorrow, it’s the one Italy would have targeted ahead of the championship.
Scotland at home is winnable, but the Azzurri are in the habit of losing and I don’t think that’s going to change in Rome.
If they cannot at least challenge this week or next, it’s time for a serious conversation about their future.
We’ve seen how competitive Rugby Europe has been this year, and it’s worth giving a congratulations to Georgia on qualifying for the World Cup next year.
There are some really strong teams in that league – including Spain and Portugal – who could deserve a shot in the future. It would have to be done in a way where we don’t see another team like Italy fail.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development and behavioural change. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn.