Ollie Phillips: Home nations within reach of rugby history
Let’s be frank: the quality of rugby we have seen across this month of internationals hasn’t always been high – it’s been stop-start, mismatched and controversial at times – but it has been competitive.
Heading into the final round of their Test series, Ireland are level with New Zealand, Scotland are equal with Argentina, England have a decider against Australia and even Wales have parity with South Africa – and I can’t wait to see who makes history and who flops.
Ireland
After beating New Zealand for the first time in their back yard, Ireland are high on confidence and Andy Farrell’s men will be looking to stick the knife into the All Blacks and earn a historic first series win in the island nation.
I worry that Ireland are back into their usual cycle of being incredible between World Cups and then flopping at the main event, where they’re yet to progress beyond the quarter-finals.
They deserved their win against New Zealand last week but so long as the home side keep their discipline – they rightly received a red card last week, and it could easily have been two – I just don’t see how they come out with anything other than a win tomorrow.
England
In Sydney a very depleted England will attempt to topple the Wallabies. There is no Maro Itoje and Sam Underhill for the tourists – in addition to the lack of Charlie Ewels and Tom Curry – and that is a huge blow.
Ollie Chessum and Lewis Ludlam are fine players, sure, but I’m not sure England are replacing what they’ve lost in Itoje and Underhill.
But they do have another world-class player in their line-up in Owen Farrell, who’s a supreme operator and really showing his critics his ability.
Elsewhere the zippy Jack van Poortvliet has been demoted to the bench with Danny Care replacing him at scrum-half, while Guy Porter – who impressed me last week – gets the nod at centre.
I do think Australia will nick this one. They’ll be reeling from last week’s loss and how their small errors and penalty count handed England the upper hand. They have the strength to get the job done and they need this win given the standing rugby union has in a country that will host the 2027 World Cup.
Rugby history in Cape Town?
Across the Indian Ocean in Cape Town, there’s a fierce battle on the cards. Wales, like England, have been devoid of any attacking flair but their defensive stubbornness has kept them in this series.
They were unlucky to lose the first Test and a little bit fortunate to win the second but they’re in it and they’ll be difficult competition for the Boks.
I do think South Africa will be ruing making so many changes for the second Test and not wrapping the series up straight away, but as long as Wales are in it there’s a chance and I think they’ll sneak it.
Scotland
For the final match of the day, Scotland could win their first summer series against a single country since they beat Argentina 2-0 in 2010.
They’re in a position where they should be beating the Pumas if they’re to show any potential going into France 2023, and I back them to win.
If you add my predictions to the existing results, this series will finish 6-6 between the northern and southern hemispheres – and what a reflection that is on how competitive rugby is just a year out from the World Cup.
And as long as it’s competitive, the World Cup will be essential viewing.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance, experts in leadership development and behavioural change. Follow Ollie on Twitter and on LinkedIn.