Indian variant analysis: Keep calm and get a vaccine
The debate around the pandemic and relaxation of lockdown and travel restrictions in the UK has become frenzied by fears over new variants. There is a dearth of calm and accurate presentation of facts by ministers and trusted voices.
Exiting lockdown for good was never going to be a straight-forward task. Bumps in the road were expected and the emergence of the so-called Indian variant in parts of the country has ignited tensions once again. Should we delay the June 21st reopening, or even cancel this week’s lockdown easing? History will be the ultimate judge, but I suspect the answer will be no.
In times of crisis, cool heads prevail. Should we be worried about the Indian variant? As with so much in life, the answer is not black and white. However, many seized on the possibility of the strain being as much as 50 per cent more transmissible than the Kent variant. This was the upper threshold given by chief medical officer Chris Whitty last week. It was not a hard and fast figure.
Over the last year our leaders have tried, with varying degrees of success, to fight nature. Viruses will evolve and mutate, generally to become more transmissible but less lethal. Attempting to stop that happening is like protecting a sandcastle from the tide, it’s futile. The only thing we can truly influence, now we have vaccines, is the degree of immunity within a population.
Government advisors have high confidence that this new strain is even more virulent than its Kent predecessor. The other part of this equation is crucial: the vaccines are doing their job. A study from India showed that of 3,235 healthcare workers who have been vaccinated, just two were hospitalised – neither ended in the ICU or died. Matt Hancock has also alluded to encouraging data which demonstrates that the vaccines are working, even against new variants.
This is reinforced by data from UK hotspots which show the spread is mainly in the unvaccinated. What is desperately needed now is targeted vaccinations in the worst affected areas. Why are we vaccinating healthy 35 year olds in Cornwall where the virus is virtually non-existent, when we could be focusing our weaponry on the areas that most need it? We need a nimble and swift response on the ground to get this under control quickly.
With a combination of targeted vaccinations, local testing and sensible public health measures, we can control these new outbreaks without the need to delay or disrupt our passage out of lockdown.
Every day we are in restrictions, jobs are lost, non-covid health issues are neglected and the nation’s mental health is put under extreme pressure. We can’t stay in lockdown “just in case”, the severe negative consequences are just too great.
When the South African variant first emerged, we were told that the vaccines were useless and further lockdowns were needed. All that did was upset people and spread even more fear. The vaccines worked against that variant and they should work against this one.
There are going to be new variants. If we continually throw ourselves into a state of disorganised panic each time we discover a new one, our success will be undermined not by the variant, but by our response. We have vaccines, we are equipped to deal with the threat. A note of caution is necessary as we enjoy further freedoms, but not an entire chorus. Keep calm, take the vaccine when offered and enjoy normal life slowly but surely returning.