ECONOMIST VIEWS: WHAT DO YOU FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK’S JOBLESS FIGURES GIVEN THE FISCAL SQUEEZE?
MICHAEL SAUNDERS | CITIGROUP
“The Labour Force Survey jobless measure also fell sharply in the last month and this may also now be starting to head markedly lower. We see the drop in unemployment as a sign that the economy may well have been recovering faster than generally realised in recent quarters.”
PETER DIXON | COMMERZBANK
“Unemployment figures will be closely scrutinised in the months to come for indications that the fiscal squeeze is taking its toll on the public sector. But the employment shakeout is only expected to kick in and we look for claimant count to have fallen by a further 20,000 in June.”
JONATHAN LOYNES | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“The good news on the labour market is unlikely to last much longer given the looming fiscal squeeze – we reckon that around 750,000 jobs could be lost over the next five years. We doubt that firms will hire enough to offset much of this rise, given the recent sharp fall in productivity.”