Lockdown one week earlier ‘could have halved’ coronavirus death toll
Imposing lockdown a week earlier could have cut the death toll “by at least half”, a former scientific adviser to the government has said.
Addressing the Science and Technology Select Committee, Professor Neil Ferguson told MPs: “The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So, had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier we would have reduced the final death toll by at least a half.”
A further 286 deaths yesterday brings the government’s total death toll to 40,883 but wider data which factors in deaths from suspected cases suggest the likely total is more than 50,000.
Ferguson’s modelling helped shape the government’s response strategy to the pandemic but resigned as an adviser after breaking lockdown rules.
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He said experts “underestimated how far this country was into the epidemic” at that stage. Infection rates were higher than anticipated, with heavier “seeding” from countries like Italy and Spain.
He said that because it is now known that the outbreaks in Italy and Spain took hold earlier than previously thought, “roughly 90 per cent of the UK [seeding] cases were missed by our border measures because we weren’t even checking people.”
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He added that Sage, the government’s scientific advisory group, had recommended checks on those travelling from countries with active transmission.
Coronavirus spread more quickly in care homes than experts had predicted, he added.
“We were all working on the assumption, which was government policy at the time, the care homes would be shielded from infection. What we’ve actually seen is infection in care homes is four times higher than in general population.”
It is in part because of the lack of shielding for elderly people and partly a lack of understanding that care home employees often work in multiple facilities.
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