Did the UK’s double-dip happen?
Sky's Ed Conway has looked more closely at the ONS' re-estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2012. The present estimate shows a contraction of only -0.083 per cent. Ed notes that re-estimates are common practice:
The ONS continuously updates its estimates of economic growth in previous years as new, more comprehensive data flows in. Back in the early 90s its initial estimates showed that Britain suffered a double dip. However, in 1998 it revised these figures to show that there never was a second contraction in the UK economy.
In fact, estimates still get updated as far back as the 1970s. A further re-estimate of just 0.083 per cent would mean that Britain never had a double-dip recession.
Regardless, the last quarter of 2012 is still estimated as negative, so we could be facing a double or triple dip now. What we call it won't matter to those living at the margins who are suffering as a result of stagnation.