Having largely traded sideways in February and March, US equity indices have broken out to the upside over Easter.
In particular, the S&P500 has rallied 2.6 per cent in the past two trading sessions and has made a new record high, while other indices have also closed at new highs, including the DJ Transports; DJIA; and the Philly SOX. Mirroring that upside break out in equities, the VIX has broken convincingly below its key technical support level (at ~20 per cent), for the first time since February 2020.
From a price action perspective, therefore, momentum in US equity markets is currently to the upside. In that respect, some follow through strength is clearly possible over coming days. The key question, though, is: How much strength? And, as we examine in this brief clip: What’s the message of the models?
Key US macro data this week includes job openings today, followed by consumer credit tomorrow. Several Fed Presidents are speaking this week including Evans, Kaplan, Bullard, and Powell and, on Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes from its March meeting.