Raise interest rates gradually or risk a much sharper swing of the pendulum January 9, 2014 FOR A given level of inflation, an economy has an “equilibrium” real interest rate. For around 125 years, it has been understood that trying to use policy to manipulate actual interest rates below the equilibrium rate for any sustained length of time will lead either to constantly accelerating inflation or to a growth boom-bust (or [...]
The Long View: Stop speaking like a corporate robot – for the sake of capitalism itself January 9, 2014 HERE’S a new year’s resolution for business: learn to speak human. The state of business language as a whole remains an abiding scandal. HSBC’s coinage of “demising” as a euphemism for “sacking” led last year’s pack, but corporate statements that resemble something delivered by an alien with a glitchy translator are hardly rare. I’ve written [...]
We’re failing to face up to the long-term crisis stirring within the NHS January 9, 2014 DO YOU think the NHS will be a significant factor at the next general election?” asked a BBC reporter last year, as we stood chatting. Never mind recent structural reforms, purely on the basis of our ageing population, it has to be. But whether there will be a realistic debate about what the NHS can [...]
Letters to the Editor – 10/01 – Pensions, Turkey’s woes, Best of Twitter January 9, 2014 Pensions [Re: Our pension system is broken. We must tear it up and start again, yesterday] Hindsight may be pointless, but if our pensions system had been ringfenced and taken out of the political arena years ago, we could have avoided the taxation devastation (taxing dividends from investment in funds), and perceived unfairness (higher rate [...]
Don’t underestimate Turkey’s turmoil: Not all emerging markets will succeed January 8, 2014 TURKEY’S often-fickle political system may not make its current domestic turmoil seem particularly important. But the country’s troubles hold lessons for the likely success – or failure – of other emerging markets in 2014 and beyond. More and more, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks like a man who has outlasted his usefulness. If [...]
2013 was a big year for bank reform – but we must avoid global divergence January 8, 2014 ALMOST a year ago to the day, the chancellor predicted 2013 would be the year banking was reset. Entering 2014, it is worth remembering that pressing the reset button is only the start. In a hectic few days before Christmas, politicians in Washington passed the Volcker Rule, the UK’s Banking Reform Bill received Royal Assent, [...]
Why raising the minimum wage is not the best way to help Britain’s poorest January 8, 2014 IT IS widely rumoured that the government is moving towards a commitment to increase the national minimum wage (NMW) well above levels suggested by the – usually fairly sensible – Low Pay Commission. This may be good news for some workers, but I’m not convinced that it is sensible policy. Temporarily recognising the constraints on [...]
Letters to the Editor – 09/01 – Buy British, Land sale, Best of Twitter January 8, 2014 Buy British [Re: Is the environment secretary right that UK consumers should buy more British food?, yesterday] So John Allan supports the UK sticking to domestically-produced food and also expects other countries to open up to UK producers? He really hasn’t thought that through at all. The government manipulates our spending and consumption with taxation [...]
Don’t let the Vegas tech giants fool you: We’re in the age of disruption January 7, 2014 IT’S HARD to think of a better parable about the effects of technology than Samsung’s embarrassing product launch at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Monday. The Korean tech giant had lined up high-octane movie director Michael Bay to launch its new curved television at the show, where the world’s techies come [...]
Against the Grain: The UK and US recoveries show why France has become such a basket case January 7, 2014 THE COMING year looks like it will be a good one. At the start of each of the past five years, the economic scales have been tilted downwards, and the challenge has been to look for factors which might have tipped them back up. The balance is now reversed, and the onus lies with the [...]