As the ECB’s governing council prepares to meet later this week, is further QE now imperative? November 29, 2015 Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, says Yes. The case for additional policy easing from the European Central Bank at its December policy meeting is extremely compelling. Yes, the full effects of the existing asset purchase programme have not yet been seen. And the recent news on the economy has improved a bit. [...]
Autumn Statement 2015: George Osborne’s gamble relies on unreliable forecasts November 27, 2015 When City A.M. asked Robert Chote, chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, how much the OBR’s borrowing forecast depends on its economic growth outlook, he quite rightly pointed out that it is not real GDP, which economists tend to focus on, but nominal GDP that is more important for predicting tax revenues and state [...]
We’ve failed to go beyond lofty rhetoric on cutting off Isis funding November 26, 2015 Ever since the self-styled Islamic State burst into the public consciousness in the summer of 2014, the group’s financing has attracted comment and scrutiny. Former US secretary of defense Chuck Hagel declared that Isil “is as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen… They are tremendously well-funded.” It is therefore striking [...]
In praise of Simon Danczuk MP: A Great British contrarian who can’t be silenced November 26, 2015 Disruption is in vogue. Airbnb, Uber and BlaBlaCar are all cases in point. Their tech-savvy founders are turning conventional wisdom on its head to deliver services to customers in new ways. This is laudable and exciting. It is also about more than making money. Take Elon Musk, arguably the most daring entrepreneur of our time. [...]
Why the Paris attacks have redefined the US presidential race – and not in a good way November 26, 2015 The 2016 US presidential race has been dramatically altered by the Paris attacks. An election that just weeks ago was dominated by whether the Obama administration’s policies should be advanced or repealed is now defined by an ever-changing, and increasingly dangerous, international climate. President Obama never wanted to be a foreign policy President. In both [...]
As UK net migration hits a record high, is the government’s inability to hit its targets really a failure? November 26, 2015 Steven Woolfe, Ukip’s migration spokesman, says Yes Yes – and the serious and far-reaching consequences for Britain belie John McDonnell’s pathetic antics with Mao’s Little Red Book at the Spending Review. According to the UK Treasury’s very important official Budget 2015 Red Book, which supports the assumptions and details the underlying numbers of the government’s [...]
Autumn Statement 2015: It’s now time for George Osborne to deliver on the tax cut pledge November 26, 2015 It's a tried and tested rhetorical technique: when you have bad news, make out that it’s far worse than it actually is. Lower expectations. Create a sense of doom. And then reveal to your neighbours that, actually, their dog’s not dead – the whining little mutt has only broken its leg. George Osborne had been [...]
Autumn Statement 2015: Chancellor George Osborne will get his surplus – but his long-term plan isn’t credible November 25, 2015 Yesterday George Osborne delivered what was effectively his fourth budget in under a year. Little wonder that his hour-long presentations from the despatch box are increasingly filled with tiny tweaks to policy and a lot of rhetoric and padding. The chancellor could have got across the important points of his statement in about three [...]
Autumn Statement 2015: The seven invisible rabbits that will help George Osborne balance his books November 25, 2015 The first Autumn Statement of a new parliament is a big event in the economic calendar. Yesterday’s statement by George Osborne was made, so we thought, against a difficult background: the latest statistics on public receipts and spending had been disappointing; the re-classification of the Housing Associations as public entities had put up his starting [...]
The Autumn Statement was a missed opportunity to radically rethink the role of the state November 25, 2015 We've become accustomed to scratching our heads during speeches by politicians, wondering how the policy measures announced can possibly reconcile with the language used. Yesterday was no exception, with the chancellor making seemingly endless announcements of spending increases, alongside U-turns on reforms to tax credits and cuts to police, as part of a speech designed [...]