Storm clouds are gathering – but Osborne hasn’t fixed the roof May 24, 2016 Uncertainty caused by a potential Brexit in the run up to June's crunch vote may be creating a smokescreen as far as the UK economy is concerned: the reality could be far worse than a few pre-referendum jitters. Recent economic data and surveys reveal some worrying signs about the economy's underlying performance. Profits at the UK’s [...]
Forget the Treasury’s short-term Brexit paper: Put rubbish in and you’ll get rubbish out May 24, 2016 The anti-Brexit Project Fear reached its zenith yesterday. Having published a paper suggesting GDP per household would fall by £4,300 in the long term (by 2030) if Britain left the EU, the Treasury yesterday turned its guns on the short-term implications of leaving. And guess what? Research produced by a department run by a chancellor who [...]
Reform Openreach’s relationship with BT or public anger at the UK broadband market will only rise May 24, 2016 Anyone who read the papers last week might be forgiven for thinking that Britain’s broadband troubles are over. After years of rising anger about poor reliability, speed and coverage, a new piece of legislation is on the way, aiming to deliver universal coverage. Unfortunately, this is not a panacea and, while the recently announced Digital [...]
Brexit threatens London’s world beating tourism industry: Don’t let the capital become a museum May 24, 2016 Tourism is one of our biggest exports – and London is the most-visited city on earth. But the industry is worried that this world-beating ranking could be at risk if Britain cuts itself off from Europe. In fact, Europe is our biggest tourist market, with more than 60 per cent of visitors to the UK [...]
Will Axa’s decision to quit investing in tobacco have a negative impact on the industry? May 24, 2016 Jasper Lawler, a markets analyst at CMC Markets, says Yes. Axa stubbing out its £1.3bn in tobacco investments could have both short and long-term negative consequences for the industry – a physical overhang of shares, and setting a precedent among insurers. In the short term, pouring its holdings onto the market will create a supply of [...]
Bayer’s $62bn Monsanto bid: Are European firms about to take over the world? May 24, 2016 Just when you thought the dearth of outbound M&A in Europe was here to stay, Germany’s Bayer sweeps in with a $62bn bid for US agrichemicals giant Monsanto. Not only would the tie-up create the world’s largest agricultural supplier, more significantly for Europe, it would be the biggest outbound takeover by a German corporate on [...]
Why it’s time to start taking Donald Trump seriously May 23, 2016 Despite his stunning victory in the Republican primaries, a new conventional wisdom has already settled around Donald Trump’s chances of winning the White House. He can’t do it, we’re told, because he’s an offensive show-off who has alienated women, the well-educated, and non-white voters. While not an inaccurate description, as so often, the conventional wisdom [...]
EU referendum: Why the smallest firms must make EU politics their business May 23, 2016 It’s exactly a month to the day to the EU referendum. It’s also the moment Britain’s army of small businesses have been dreading. For them there’s more than just the most desirable shape of a banana, open borders, the Greek question or Brussels bureaucracy at stake, it’s making a decision about the future of their [...]
Barack Obama must nail down his free trade deals before the protectionist takeover May 23, 2016 Washington – A few years ago, in a predictably thorough fashion, the Chinese government commissioned a study of the documented historical cases where rising powers had challenged dominant powers for leadership of the international system. The currently-rising Chinese (who went all the way back in time to mine valuable lessons from Thucydides about Athens and [...]
Nine Brexit myths rebutted: Why the City would suffer if Britain votes to leave the EU May 23, 2016 The Prime Minister came to the City last week to address a packed room full of senior business leaders as part of a World Economic Forum event. Here he helped dispel nine of the myths put forward so vigorously by the Leave campaign as to why we should exit the EU. Here are my views [...]