Michael Gove just totally dissed economists and “expert” pollsters and social scientists November 27, 2016 Michael Gove has dissed economists, calling them out for failing to predict the financial crisis back in 2008 and for getting it wrong when it comes to the impact of June's vote for Brexit, as well as labelling the profession "in crisis". The former justice secretary and Leave campaigner who was sacked from the frontbench by [...]
Euro and pound get a Thanksgiving relief from the stronger dollar November 24, 2016 The euro is enjoying a small rally on as the US celebrates Thanksgiving, after it hit its lowest level since March 2015 against the US dollar, still riding high as investors continue to adjust in post-election market turmoil. The pound held off the dollar in Thursday’s trading to rally slightly back towards $1.25 while US traders are on holiday. [...]
Let’s face it: the UK’s stagnant productivity levels are here to stay November 24, 2016 Key elements of the chancellor’s Autumn Statement were policies both to increase productivity and to curb the government deficit. Unfortunately, neither of these goals is likely to be realised. Stagnant productivity certainly is a major millstone round the UK economy’s neck. Output per hour today is only fractionally above what it was 10 years ago, [...]
“We have certainly not seen a period remotely like it in the last 70 years”: Think tank’s dire warning on wage growth November 24, 2016 The director of one of the UK's most respected think tanks has issued a dire forecast about UK wage growth, warning workers are in the middle of more than a decade of stagnant wages. In a highly emotive release, Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said its projections suggested real wages [...]
Trump fallout risks damaging European financial stability, says ECB vice-president November 24, 2016 The election of Donald Trump as US President has heightened risks to European financial stability, according to a top central banker. The huge market movements in the aftermath of Trump’s surprise victory have exacerbated “significant” vulnerabilities in the European banking sector, according to Vitor Constancio, vice-president of the European Central Bank (ECB). While he said [...]
There was a surprise jump in mortgage approvals in October – but it’s not necessarily good news November 24, 2016 House price growth may be suffering, but that hasn't had any effect on mortgage borrowing: figures published today showed the number of mortgages approved jumped to 40,900 in October. That figure is above September's figure of 38,700 – and, crucially, above expectations of 39,000. But the British Bankers' Association, which published the figures, said mortgage [...]
Gold catches a bug as the dollar’s surge shows no sign of abating and Fed rate rise looks all but a certainty November 24, 2016 Gold has continued to fall this morning on the back of yet more highs for the US dollar, reaching lows not seen since February. The currency’s strength combined with strong US data and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) to send gold far below the $1200/oz level. In morning trading a small [...]
Steady as she goes from Spreadsheet Phil November 24, 2016 It can't have been easy for George Osborne to watch his successor abolish one of the former chancellor’s favourite political devices. Philip Hammond ended his sober assessment of the public finances yesterday by declaring that the Autumn Statement will be no more. “No other economy makes hundreds of tax changes twice a year, and neither should [...]
Philip Hammond has gifted Britain a third decade of gross fiscal irresponsibility November 23, 2016 If it ever truly began, it really does look like the era of austerity is over. After the savage cuts of George Osborne’s days, when current spending was slashed by an eye watering 0.2 per cent, Philip Hammond has decided enough is enough. The borrowing forecasts from yesterday’s Autumn Statement were diabolical. A surplus is now not [...]
The chancellor’s new investments should boost productivity – but the next few years are going to be tough November 23, 2016 Philip Hammond kept the nation in suspense as to the new government’s priorities for the economy until the Autumn Statement, and generally it was worth the wait. The chancellor proved a bigger spender, focusing on one of the fundamental challenges facing the UK economy beyond Brexit – productivity. If the UK is to forge a [...]