The OBR has cut forecasts of UK growth for the next five years as Brexit takes its toll November 23, 2016 Official forecasts of the UK’s economic growth until 2020 have been cut, as economists start to take stock of the medium-term impacts of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. The lower growth has also prevented the government from running a budget surplus by the end of this Parliament in 2019-20. The UK’s gross [...]
Uncertainty not totally to blame for UK’s economic problems, says MPC member November 23, 2016 Uncertainty might be causing some wobbles for businesses, but it gets more blame than it deserves, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) will say this morning. Speaking at a conference hosted by JP Morgan Cazenove, Kristin Forbes, external MPC member, is expected to say that, while mentions of uncertainty in the likes of [...]
A rising Dow lifts all boats higher around the world’s exchanges as Australian stocks make big gains November 23, 2016 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 19,000 for the first time ever on Tuesday driven by the election of Donald Trump and rising oil prices, leading to continued gains on stocks around the world. As Japanese exchanges enjoyed a public holiday focus turned overnight to Australia, where the S&P/ASX 200 recorded gains of 2.56 [...]
Eurozone PMI rises to highest this year as wheels keep turning in Germany’s economic powerhouse November 23, 2016 There is no sign of Trump-induced hysteria in the Eurozone economy, as an important indicator of economic activity in the bloc's manufacturing and services sectors rose in November despite a slight slowdown in the German economy. Eurozone composite PMI, which measures overall activity, rose to 54.1 from 53.3 in October, according to data company IHS Markit. It now [...]
What to expect when you’re expecting the Autumn Statement – here’s what we know so far November 23, 2016 Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver his first Autumn Statement today – and unlike during the Osborne era, the Treasury has already given a hint of what will be in the speech: Housing Letting agents' fees are in the firing line: Hammond is expected to ban them in an attempt to stop households in private rental [...]
Forward guidance is just another delusion foisted on us by mainstream macroeconomics November 22, 2016 The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, was on good form last week when he appeared at the Treasury Committee of the House of Commons. Asked what “forward guidance” meant, he answered smoothly: “The thing about forward guidance is that it is guidance that is forward. Which is not to say it is meant [...]
Massive investment in education is the ultimate fiscal stimulus for Brexit Britain November 22, 2016 We learnt of three priorities for government spending recently: roads, railways and flood defences. As an economist, I take a slightly different view of what’s needed to drive the UK economy at this pivotal time. To quote a former politician, my three priorities for public infrastructure in today’s Autumn Statement would be “education, education, education.” In [...]
As Trump prepares to dump the TPP Pacific free trade deal, is globalisation going into reverse? November 22, 2016 Dr Madsen Pirie, founder and president of the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. It looks very much as if globalisation has reached its high water mark and may be slipping back. Donald Trump's pledge to pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal comes hot on the heels of the declaration by many involved that the [...]
Consumer confidence rises in Eurozone in November, beating the wider European Union November 22, 2016 Eurozone consumer confidence has improved sharply in November, shrugging off any aftermath from the UK’s decision to vote to leave the European Union to beat forecasts. The indicator improved by 1.9 points to -6.1, according to the European Commission. This is well above the long-term average below -12, and above forecasts which had predicted confidence [...]
Public sector borrowing: These five charts tell us everything we need to know about the state of the UK’s finances November 22, 2016 Chancellor Philip Hammond got a pleasant surprise from the Office for National Statistics today, after figures showed the UK's public borrowing has actually fallen. But it's likely this is a temporary respite for the UK's borrowing, which is expected to rise this year. These five charts put today's borrowing figures in perspective: Read more: The [...]