Why a Canada-style Brexit deal is unlikely October 16, 2018 Brexit is now less than six months away. Yet somehow, a deal feels further away than it did just a few weeks ago. The stakes are fairly high. Models estimate that GDP will shrink by much as eight per cent. Some of the damage has already been done via the corrosive effects of uncertainty and anticipation of a [...]
Ignore the chancellor, we don’t need Chequers to end austerity October 16, 2018 I generally presume cynicism in politicians’ arguments. But Philip Hammond implying a Chequers-style relationship with the EU is needed to “end austerity” was shocking in its brazenness. Ahead of the October Budget, the chancellor has echoed Theresa May in suggesting that looser government spending is just around the corner. Their calculation seems to be that [...]
Brexit: 23 answers to investors’ questions October 16, 2018 | City Talk The UK’s scheduled departure from the EU is fast approaching. Many observers are hopeful for an orderly withdrawal. But plenty of potential pitfalls between now and Brexit-day which could result in a chaotic divorce. The only near-certainty at present is that the UK will cease to be a full member of the EU on 29 [...]
UK wage growth accelerates at fastest rate since financial crisis October 16, 2018 Employees received a bumper pay rise in the three months to the end of August, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed today, showing wages have grown at their fastest rate since the financial crisis. Employees’ average weekly earnings received a bumper year-on-year rise of 3.1 per cent excluding bonuses, or 2.7 per [...]
End of austerity not ‘compatible’ with eliminating deficit says Institute for Fiscal Studies ahead of Budget October 16, 2018 The government faces a stark choice between upholding Theresa May’s promise to “end austerity” or meet its target of eliminating the deficit, according to a detailed analysis by one the UK’s most trusted economic bodies. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) will today say that chancellor Philip Hammond will have to find an extra £19bn [...]
Europe’s banks are right – the EU must act to avoid a Brexit cliff edge disaster October 16, 2018 Retail king Lord Wolfson raised eyebrows at the weekend when he insisted that a no deal outcome to Brexit talks “would not be a disaster”. The Next boss was referring to the overall effect on trade and, politically, he articulated his point well – you have to be prepared for no deal in order to [...]
Think like a small business to solve the productivity puzzle October 15, 2018 Economists, some might argue, have a knack for making the vital sound dull, for making the immediate seem remote and abstract. There’s perhaps no better example of this than the much-discussed “productivity puzzle”. This “puzzle” often sounds a bit like one of those educational computer games you might try to occupy a particularly precocious five-year-old [...]
Downing Street: Theresa May will rule out a customs union if no Brexit deal is reached October 12, 2018 Downing Street said today that Theresa May would never agree to a permanent customs union with the EU, as the Prime Minister attempts to set cabinet ministers at ease over the Brexit negotiations. “The Prime Minister would never agree to a deal which would trap the UK in a backstop permanently,” a spokeswoman told the [...]
Hammond predicts economic boost from ‘Brexit deal dividend’ October 12, 2018 Chancellor Philip Hammond said today that securing a Brexit agreement with the EU will lift the economy. Speaking in the run up to the Budget later this month, Hammond told the BBC that there has been a “measurable change of pace” in the negotiations between the UK and the EU, adding that the UK could [...]
Going Pacific: The CP-TPP is the perfect trade partnership for post-Brexit Britain October 12, 2018 This week, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan added his voice to those calling for the UK to accede to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (CP-TPP). This trade agreement between a group of 11 countries that border the Pacific has been identified by the UK’s Department for International Trade as a priority for [...]