Burnham was Labour’s best chance to stop Reform’s rise
Blocking Andy Burnham’s bid to stand as an MP could cause irreparable damage if Labour now loses the by-election, writes John McTernan
The Labour Party is renowned for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity. On Sunday they did it again by barring Andy Burnham from standing in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election. The thing is, this Labour government desperately needs a boost electorally.
It is led by the most unpopular Prime Minister in polling history, and has now reached its lowest ever levels of unpopularity. Pollsters show that support for Labour now stands at 17 per cent – meaning the party has shed half the support it had in its “loveless landslide” in the general election.
So, as Keir Starmer’s government enters its “mid-term” phase, the unprecedented fall in Labour’s popularity means that it needs all the help it can get. Particularly as all by-elections are difficult for governing parties – they are a chance for voters to have a free hit, to “send a message” to the governing party.
At the heart of Andy Burnham’s bid to stand in the by-election was his recognition of the need for Labour to find an answer to the seemingly irresistible rise of Nigel Farage and his party Reform UK.
In truth, Labour only has two politicians with the ability to challenge right wing populism. One is Wes Streeting whose communications skills, and specifically his sense of humour, make him a powerful persuader. But he’s already in the government. The other is Andy Burnham, whose popularity is clear in the polls, but also in any pub of football fans who invariably ask for a selfie with him.
Manchester’s man in Westminster
Barring Burnham from standing in Gorton and Denton robs Labour of the chance of a candidate who is so popular in Greater Manchester that he won over half the vote in his most recent re-election – and won every single constituency. He would be Manchester’s man in Westminster, not Labour’s face in Manchester.
For sure, he would also have been the candidate taking the government a message. But that would only have been the one that most members of the Parliamentary Labour Party believe – “this Labour government has lost its way!” Judging by the number of U-turns they have executed, the government doesn’t actually disagree.
The decision by the officers of Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) was not in the best interests of the party. The announcement of their decision may as well have said: “The Emperor has such exceptionally fine clothes they will be the marvel of London Fashion Week.”
It would have been far better for Labour if the candidate channelling the anger and frustration of voters in Greater Manchester was their own Andy Burnham. The absence of the loved local candidate clears the way for this by-election to be a showcase for the insurgent populist parties of the left and right – the Greens and Reform.
This is the worst of all possible worlds for Keir Starmer and his Labour government. The Prime Minister faces a by-election defeat – which will only strengthen the standing of Andy Burnham who will be able to say that blocking him was clearly an error and that he would have won the seat.
A Reform surge would be bad enough, but a high profile repeat of the Caerphilly Senedd by-election would be far worse. Last year, Plaid Cymru were able to assemble a “progressive majority” to defeat Reform in Wales. This will be a much higher profile by-election and one in which the real threat to Labour is if the Green Party successfully presents themselves as the option for progressive voters who want to defeat Reform.
That would be a game changer on the centre-left – and, like all this government’s missteps, would be entirely self-inflicted.
John McTernan is a political strategist and commentator and former adviser to Tony Blair