Betting on a one-horse race for City Hall
By the time the sun rises tomorrow morning London will have a new mayor, and all signs point to Labour’s Sadiq Khan being the man to take over from Boris Johnson.
Such has been Khan’s polling dominance over Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith, the Tooting MP could have safely ordered curtains, carpets and desks for his new office at City Hall months ago.
Yet, there is still money to be made from betting on what looks to be a one-horse race.
This contest has been as much a question of demographics as tactics.
Labour has outpolled the Tories in London in every general election since 1992, including last May when the party gained seven seats in the capital against an overwhelmingly negative national result.
Head of Labour’s London campaign effort last May? None other than Sadiq Khan.
Boris Johnson
It’s clear that Johnson won two mayoral elections despite his party’s standing in London, and Team Goldsmith faced a monumental task to try and replicate his ability to get Labour voters to switch sides.
Put simply, Zac is no Boris and the polls reflect that.
With the outright winner of the race all but certain according to bookmakers, political punters will be looking at the precise vote share results with keen interest.
Pollsters Opinium last night put Khan on 35 per cent, with Goldsmith on 26 per cent, rising to a landslide 57-43 victory for Khan when second preferences are counted.
Leading political spread betting firm Sporting Index’s first round vote share markets predict Goldsmith will receive 36.5 per cent.
It would be a very brave punter to back Zac to get close to 40 per cent of the first round votes.
But there is one factor that could lead to the MP for Richmond Park celebrating an unlikely victory tonight – voter turnout.
Poor turnout
For all the heavyweight battles between Boris and Ken over the years, turnout for London mayoral elections has been poor.
A high water mark of 45 per cent was reached in 2008, but the average across the four elections to-date is just a pitiful 38 per cent.
A low turnout today could be terminal for Khan, as his support has tended to skew towards younger voters, and his poll lead is largely thanks to a 2:1 margin in inner London. Both groups are statistically less certain to actually cast a ballot.
Sporting Index reckons turnout will be a woeful 35 per cent. Anything lower would give the Tories a faint glimmer of hope of victory, but a more realistic target looks to be the subsequent by-election in Tooting. Betway make the Conservatives evens to claim Khan’s seat if he steps down.