You can tune out, the Brexit melodrama won’t get fixed anytime soon
A few weeks ago, I took a break from reading the news because I was worried that Brexit developments were stressing me out too much.
When I returned to the papers late last week, I was relieved, and hardly surprised, that I hadn’t missed much.
As we approach the 31 October Brexit deadline, we appear to have entered a rollercoaster ride phase in which the narrative alternates between reports of a Brexit breakthrough followed by those of a negotiation collapse, sometimes within a matter of hours.
It is perhaps a sign of our growing impatience with Brexit that neither of these rather extreme news flashes appears to elicit much of a response. Something really big would have to actually happen for many of us to pay any serious attention these days.
A Brexit deal remains unlikely this week, and the most probable immediate outcome is that there will be another extension to the Article 50 process.
The Benn Act, aptly described as the Surrender Act by the Prime Minister and his team, effectively demolished any real chance of a deal – as it was intended to do – because it provided the EU with the assurance that the UK was mandated to seek an extension, precluding the pressure of a no-deal Brexit (especially on Ireland and Germany).
With the Benn Act, the mask slipped well off the face. Those MPs who voted for it did not so much want to stop a no-deal Brexit as they did stop Brexit entirely under the guise of preventing no-deal calamities (that most now appreciate have been widely exaggerated).
Unsurprisingly, Michel Barnier has indicated that the EU would grant this extension. To do otherwise would have condemned Ireland to the economic woes of being cut off economically from the EU, at least for a time.
The EU’s eagerness to grant yet another extension is likely also due to the expectation that it would secure enough time for the Remain-dominated parliament to legislate a second referendum. The subordinate expectation is, of course, that such a referendum would yield a desire to stay in the EU – an outcome which is far from given, but that’s a problem for another day.
Recent media speculation surrounding the meeting in Liverpool between Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar hinted that there was some kind of rapprochement between the parties, suggesting that an agreement is at hand. But this is more likely to be a reflection of both sides’ desire to appear reasonable and concessionary in the final stages before talks collapse.
Neither side wants to bear the reputation as a spoilsport – for Johnson, because this is key to his stance as a diplomatically-minded statesman; for the EU, because negotiating ad nauseum is part of its cuddly, hug-a-neighbour, globalist ethos.
The EU will not relinquish its hardline stance that Northern Ireland must remain in the customs union, something which the UK cannot allow. This would be an affront to sovereignty, and would condemn any government which oversaw this outcome into historic infamy.
Creative solutions, such as the new double customs plan or previously proposed technology-enhanced simplified customs procedures (both of which could offer a plausible way out of the impasse), have already been thrown aside by the EU with insufficient scrutiny bordering on bad faith.
So where does that leave us?
Despite compelling rumours to the contrary, it is unlikely that Johnson will attempt to disobey the Benn Act by either not seeking an extension to Article 50 or intentionally frustrating it. While this approach might cheer up ardent Brexiteers, it would cast him in a negative light with the general public as a Prime Minister who sees himself as above the law.
The end result of the current impasse is therefore that there will most likely be an extension until next year, during which period there will be a General Election. That one has been put off for so long is itself a shocking situation, particularly since so many MPs, especially in the Labour party, had been agitating for one for so long.
Polling suggests that the British public are tired of the Brexit drama, and that they will return a Conservative government which is intent on delivering the “will of the people” – meaning Brexit as voted in the referendum of 2016, quite possibly on WTO terms, in early 2020.
Readers are accordingly invited to take a break from the Brexit melodrama for the next few weeks.
Main image credit: Getty