The ECB’s toolkit looks worryingly limited for tackling euro malaise February 6, 2014 THE CLAMOUR for further monetary easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) has become almost deafening. Despite this, the ECB yesterday decided to hold its interest rate at 0.25 per cent. As one journalist at ECB president Mario Draghi’s press conference griped, “Why won’t you simply cut rates!?” There are two fundamental reasons why the [...]
Shop prices still dropping with fastest fall on record reported February 4, 2014 JANUARY was the ninth straight month of shop price deflation in the UK, with prices falling at the fastest rate ever recorded by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Nielsen. Shop prices dipped by one per cent in the year to January, driven by a 2.7 per cent fall in non-food prices. The drop in [...]
We’re seeing respectable growth for a New Normal but real risks still remain February 1, 2014 UK ECONOMIC growth is looking up. The 0.7 per cent GDP increase in the fourth quarter of 2013 might not have been as strong as some commentators were expecting, but it means economic activity is up a full 2.8 per cent on a year ago. It’s not as strong as the 3.3 per cent growth [...]
Inflation since 2008 crash has hit low-paid hardest January 30, 2014 THE SQUEEZE on UK pay has meant much bigger wage cuts for high earners, but new figures now reveal that above-target inflation has hit households on low incomes most severely of all. On average, the highest incomes tracked by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have dropped by over eight per cent in real terms since 2007-8. [...]
Growth is back – but here are five challenges still facing the UK January 30, 2014 THERE can be no doubt that the UK’s economic picture has improved dramatically. Growth is back, employment is buoyant and optimism is returning. But the economy remains horribly scarred by the downturn, with many issues still needing to be tackled. Here are five especially pressing challenges. 1) Median incomes remain six per cent lower in [...]
We’re seeing respectable growth for a New Normal but real risks still remain January 28, 2014 UK ECONOMIC growth is looking up. The 0.7 per cent GDP increase in the fourth quarter of 2013 might not have been as strong as some commentators were expecting, but it means economic activity is up a full 2.8 per cent on a year ago. It’s not as strong as the 3.3 per cent growth [...]
How Bank of England heavyweights criticised their own policy, 20 years early January 17, 2014 It's taken the Bank of England four years to get inflation back to target – but many think the Monetary Policy Committee is looking in the wrong place entirely. In fact, the committee's own members seem to have agreed. A comment at the market monetarist blog Britmouse documents how members of the Bank of England's [...]
A few simple questions for Osborne, Labour and the coalition January 16, 2014 IT is a moral imperative for all politicians to seek to help those on low incomes. Poverty is a horrible, depressing, truly heart-breaking condition. But what is the best way to help the working poor? One approach focuses on policies that promote economic growth, job creation, productivity growth and social mobility, combined with much lower [...]
Inflation at target after four years riding high January 14, 2014 INFLATION finally fell back to its two per cent target in December, official data showed yesterday, after more than four years of running too high. The drop from 2.1 per cent will help Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s credibility, boosting his reputation as inflation has dropped since he took the role in the summer. [...]
Mark Carney is going to be very happy about this chart January 14, 2014 Inflation is finally at the Bank of England's target – and it only took four years to get there. So we expect that the Bank's (still relatively new to the job) governor Mark Carney will be pretty pleased by this chart of falling annual consumer price inflation: This morning Societe Generale's Kit Juckes [...]