Is Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz right that Europe may have to abandon the euro to save the European project? August 30, 2016 Ruth Lea, economic adviser at Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. Granted, some may regard the common currency as an intrinsic part of the “European project”, but the euro is undermining the very foundations of a prosperous and peaceful union for all its members, which is surely what the European project is fundamentally about. And it is [...]
As an EY survey finds financial firms shrugging off Brexit fears, is the City being too sanguine about leaving the EU? August 22, 2016 Professor Richard Portes, academic director at AQR Asset Management Institute, London Business School, says Yes. Of course nobody predicted an immediate fall in output and employment. But those will come. Both vacancies and investment plans are already down. Sterling has fallen a lot, and short positions are up, with the exchange rate set to fall further. [...]
As German exports plunge, could the economic giant drag the whole Eurozone into recession? October 9, 2014 Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. Germany’s economy accounts for over a quarter of the Eurozone’s GDP and, until recently, seemed in good health. In contrast, France and Italy are struggling with stagnation and recession respectively. Germany’s GDP fell by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2014, but [...]
London has nothing to fear from leaving the EU – but much to gain August 6, 2014 THE EUROPE Report: A win-win situation, authored by Boris Johnson’s chief economic adviser Dr Gerard Lyons and released yesterday, is a major contribution to the “in/out” EU debate – a debate that will simply not go away. I welcome its measured, positive and undogmatic analysis of the main scenarios facing Britain and our relationship with [...]
Could the Commonwealth become more important to the UK than the EU? July 23, 2014 Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes. Crystal ball gazing is a risky business. But it’s a useful exercise that can throw up some fascinating, albeit highly provisional, conclusions. The Commonwealth is already a colossus, comprising 53 countries and over 2bn people. In its diversity, the Commonwealth represents the modern world [...]
