US recession risk remains as Fed seeks to tame inflation City Talk After its latest rate rise, the Federal Reserve has signalled the pace of hikes could slow. But a recession may still be necessary to bring runaway inflation under control. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) at its July meeting, but indicated that the pace could slow from here. In [...]
What a new world order might mean for the global economy City Talk Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened fault lines between nations which will affect trade relations and investment for years to come. The war in Ukraine is already having a significant effect on inflation and activity in the world economy as commodity prices have soared and supply chains have been disrupted. Inflation in the G7 was [...]
Are we heading for a global recession? City Talk Keith Wade, Chief Economist, discusses what central bankers’ next move might be, what markets are pricing in and what the probability of a recession is. People are worrying about a global recession and with good reason. But what if the factors driving rising prices are beyond the limits of policymakers’ control? The squeeze on living [...]
Omicron pushing US Fed into action January 26, 2022 Stagflationary risks are rising as Covid variant extends disruption and central bank steps up to bring inflation under control. US inflation hit its highest level since 1982 at the end of 2021, with the consumer price index (CPI) reaching 7% year-on-year. The figures were widely anticipated, but only add to pressure on the US Federal [...]
Outlook 2022: Global economy December 7, 2021 2022 is set to be another good year for growth, albeit the recovery is likely to remain unbalanced. Anticipated withdrawal of emergency levels of support will play important role in shaping outlook. Risks include higher-than-expected inflation and weaker growth. The emergence of the Omicron Covid variant has reminded us of the uncertainties which remain around [...]
Could technology trigger a lasting boost to productivity? August 6, 2021 Two years ago, we identified a series of inescapable investment “truths” that we expected would shape the following decade. Among these truths, we highlighted the accelerated adoption of technology and increased populism as two disruptive trends to watch. But have these two trends been strengthened or challenged by the pandemic? Growth outlook stronger as economies adapt Despite [...]
Democrat sweep to open fiscal floodgates and boost growth January 11, 2021 Democrats have completed a sweep of Congress following the double victory in the state of Georgia’s run-off election. The disturbing scenes of protestors storming Capitol Hill last night may have soured the victory, but nonetheless the Democrat party now have control of the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. [...]
Covid-19: the inescapable truths faced by investors May 22, 2020 Investors will need to be more agile than ever as Covid-19 reinforces many of the trends driving the world economy prior to the outbreak. “At the beginning of the plague, when there was now no more hope but that the whole city would be visited; when all that had friends or estates in the country [...]
Economies in free fall as hopes fade for a V-shaped recovery April 28, 2020 Amongst the arguments about a lack of protective clothing for health workers and whether governments were too slow to react to the spread of Covid-19, the latest figures show that the pandemic is gradually coming under control. The rate of growth in new infections and fatalities around the world is slowing and the curves are [...]
Coronavirus to spark “severe” global recession March 20, 2020 The coronavirus is having a severe effect on global economic activity and amidst considerable uncertainty we have attempted to gauge the impact and updated our forecasts. We now expect to see the world economy contract this year by 3.1%, before rebounding by 7.2% in 2021. The forecast incorporates a severe recession in the first half [...]
