Our timid chancellor fell for the discredited groupthink that Brexit is bad for growth November 23, 2016 The latest GDP forecasts from the OBR made me laugh. If the Autumn Statement was a court of law, and the OBR was in the dock, it wouldn’t be long until the prosecuting barrister got the OBR to admit that its numbers were an assumption in the short term and a guess thereafter. The downward [...]
Anti-free trader Donald Trump is on a collision course with economic reality November 9, 2016 US presidential elections have always been imbued with protectionist rhetoric, most notably in the Democratic party primaries. What’s different in 2016 is the scale of it and the fact that it comes from the other side of the political aisle. The election of Donald Trump pitches political rhetoric against economic history. Those who know their [...]
Money supply growth suggests we’re still too pessimistic about the British economy November 2, 2016 The latest broad money supply M4x figures from the Bank of England (up to the end of September this year) paint a picture of an economy getting stronger, not weaker. To understand why, we need a short digression into economic theory. Broad money supply growth provides an insight into the outlook for nominal GDP growth [...]
Brexit will be unequivocally good for the UK economy in both the short and long term October 12, 2016 When questioned on Brexit by the BBC’s Andrew Neil at a conference earlier this week, I made what appeared to be a radical statement: “Brexit will be unequivocally good for the British economy.” Understandably, Neil came back at me sharply, demanding to know how my statement could be reconciled with City firms shifting their location [...]
The IMF is wrong to be so gloomy: The British economy is strengthening not weakening post-Brexit October 5, 2016 I have two problems with the latest analysis of UK economic prospects in the IMF World Economic Outlook released this week. First, it is slightly dated and doesn’t take on board some important recent releases. The IMF is behind the curve. Second, the UK forecasts for next year appear to be based more on assumption [...]
Trumponomics is big, bold and brash – but less unorthodox than you might think September 28, 2016 Donald Trump is an undoubted political maverick. But is he an economic maverick too? The answer is yes and no. Yes he’s a maverick on trade policy, arguing for the rejection of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Trump has also called for a 35 [...]
Scotland may be split on independence – but the future looks fixed in one direction September 22, 2016 As if Brexit wasn’t complicated enough, the Prime Minister also needs to keep an eye on developments north of the border, in Scotland. Many nationalists argue that the 2014 referendum was about being in a very different UK (i.e. inside the EU as well), and that, if the referendum was to be repeated now, the vote [...]
The chancellor faces four daunting tasks in preparing his Autumn Statement September 14, 2016 Say your prayers for the chancellor of the exchequer. Most people think David Davis and Liam Fox have a tough enough job over the coming months, but Philip Hammond also faces a daunting challenge. Consider some of the questions in his in-tray: Question One: Is the UK economy slowing down? The received wisdom is that [...]
Forget trade deals: Unilaterally tearing down our tariffs would be Britain’s Berlin Wall moment September 7, 2016 The Aussies are itching for a free trade deal and the Prime Minister is said to want to lead the world against protectionism. For most people such issues are economic, pure and simple. Unfortunately, what is missing is the moral dimension, which needs to be far better understood. Adam Smith argued that “all commerce that [...]
Crisis, what crisis? You can see Brexit everywhere but in the economic statistics August 31, 2016 The American Nobel Laureate economist, Robert Solow, famously said that “you can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”. We might want to update that quote to, “you can see Brexit everywhere but in the statistics.” UK broad money supply M4ex rose by 6.9 per cent (year-on-year) in July, up from 6.0 [...]
