Inflation can become a self-fulfilling prophecy Opinion Managing inflation expectations will be a key challenge in the coming year, says Daniel Mahoney When does a prophecy become a reality? Since the 1970s, it has been conventional wisdom that the key to controlling inflation is controlling inflation expectations – but outside economics circles it is not often appreciated why. However, managing expectations increasingly [...]
Are we heading for a 1980s-style inflation spike? Opinion What lessons should policymakers from the Lawson Boom and subsequent recession? Asks Daniel Mahoney High inflation, unreliable data and a government banking on growth. While this sounds familiar, it was also the situation at the end of the 1980s – the “Lawson Boom”. We know what happened next; inflation soared further and was only eventually [...]
London must square the circle to deliver a sustainable transport network Transport for London’s (TfL) funding, both in the short and long-term, was a thorny issue even before the pandemic set the scene for an eruption of the tensions between central and London governments. While keeping the system afloat is rightly the focus of debate – and will be again when the temporary solution expires in [...]
As Toyota says it’ll invest £240m in its UK plant, has the threat of Brexit to carmakers been overplayed? March 17, 2017 Daniel Mahoney, deputy director at the Centre for Policy Studies, says Yes. The prospect of a 10 per cent tariff on UK car exports to the EU is unnerving for the automotive industry. However, developments since the EU referendum are reason to remain positive. Both Nissan and now Toyota have announced major investments in the [...]
Will legally separating BT and Openreach be enough to give broadband customers a better deal? March 10, 2017 Kate Devine, head of home communications at MoneySuperMarket, says Yes. Legally separating BT and Openreach should be seen as a victory for broadband customers. It will offer a better deal for many, built on the promise to treat all customers equally in terms of repairs and services, in comparison to the current system, which is [...]
There’s no need for Treasury giveaways to help the just about managing March 6, 2017 On the steps of Downing Street, Theresa May outlined the core of her political strategy: “If you are just about managing, I want to address you directly”. The just about managing – the so-called JAMs – saw their cost of living significantly squeezed in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and it is indeed vital that [...]
With reports Barclays has chosen Dublin for its EU HQ, will Ireland be the beneficiary of any City Brexodus? January 30, 2017 Daniel Mahoney, head of economic research at the Centre for Policy Studies, says Yes. Although Theresa May has provided a degree of clarity on the Brexit negotiations, remaining uncertainties mean that financial service firms will, inevitably, seek to implement some restructuring and contingency planning. Ireland is well placed to take advantage of this. Ireland shares [...]
Why unleashing competition would deliver lower fares and greater choice to rail passengers January 9, 2017 The UK’s rail passengers are suffering, and will no doubt continue to do so over the coming months. Union action is bringing the network to a standstill, with further strikes planned for this week. The level of sickness leave among train staff has also been mysteriously increasing, and has doubled compared to pre-strike levels, according [...]
Chancellor Hammond must focus on the quality of infrastructure spending, not its quantity November 22, 2016 Keynes is back, or so it seems. Both left and right wing movements across the West are calling for greater government borrowing to finance infrastructure projects. In the US, Donald Trump is proposing to invest $500bn. In the UK, Labour’s John McDonnell wants an even more lavish £500bn programme, equivalent to around a quarter of [...]
Blackout Britain: Don’t blame the EU alone for the UK’s energy crisis September 29, 2016 Today, the government will release its monthly statistics on total energy production in the UK. This new data will no doubt reflect the poor state of the UK’s energy system, which has suffered from a series of highly damaging state interventions that have burdened consumers with unnecessary costs and left the UK with a worrying [...]
