Premiership play-offs: Bath and Leicester to set up old school final
The final day of the Premiership was a brilliant advert for English top-flight rugby, but this weekend’s play-offs will turn that up another notch.
On Friday night runaway league leaders Bath take on local rivals Bristol Bears while, on Saturday, Leicester face Sale Sharks in the East Midlands.
The Premiership semi-finals are always a series of great games but home advantage has been key.
Across the last 10 seasons, totalling 20 semi-final fixtures, only twice has the away side gone home victorious – once when Saracens beat Northampton in 2015 and the other when Bristol lost at home to Harlequins in 2021.
In every one of the other 18 fixtures home advantage came out on top. That should put Bath and Leicester at ease, shouldn’t it?
Bath to storm play-offs?
Table toppers Bath have lost just once at home in the Premiership this season, defeated 26-36 at the hands of… Bristol.
Whether or not Pat Lam’s side can repeat the feat remains to be seen but if one team can match Bath’s ability to throw the ball around with confidence it is Bristol Bears.
The Blue, Black and Whites will be buoyed by their EPCR Challenge Cup victory, in which they put together one of their performances of the season.
The likes of Ben Spencer and Finn Russell will look to combine again on Friday night while the forwards – including Thomas du Toit and Tom Dunn – should be well up for the physical battle.
One of Bath’s players of the season won’t be there though, with Sam Underhill suspended for a head shot in the Challenge Cup final.
For Bristol it will be a case of disrupting Bath’s ball, making a nuisance of themselves and taking their opportunities when they come.
Bath will be favourites, and I back them to make it to a second successive final, but Bristol could throw a spanner in the works and become one of the rare away upsets.
Cheika mate
The second game feels a little bit tighter, with Michael Cheika set for his last game in charge at Welford Road and Alex Sanderson looking to turn his hard work at Sale into silverware.
Leicester came out 44-34 winners when these two met in the regular season at the home of the Tigers but emotions will be heightened with the likes of Ben Youngs and Dan Cole set for the very final matches in front of the famous Leicester terrace.
It is an odd situation for the home team, with so much uncertainty surrounding a number of key positions next season, and with a head coach who decided in such a short tenure that the club was not the right fit for him.
As for Sale it feels like they’re on an upward trajectory; they reached the final a couple of years ago – where they lost to Saracens – but have managed to maintain the bulk of their squad and develop academy products into consistent starters.
Sale will be able to cause Leicester trouble at the breakdown and set piece this weekend and it is on the Tigers to ensure they can get the ball away from the ruck and into the hands of their pacey wingers to cause trouble.
I back Leicester here, especially at home, but the emotion of it all could cause problems for the Tigers.
If both of my picks – Bath and Leicester – win it will be a proper old-school final in Twickenham later this month. But Bristol and Sale can spoil the party, and the Bears are just two matches from their first ever Premiership. All to play for.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11