Labour doubles down on welfare vote despite massive revolt June 25, 2025 The Labour government has doubled down on holding a vote on its controversial welfare bill – worth £4.8bn in savings – as soon as next week, despite opposition from more than 130 of its own backbenchers. Angela Rayner told the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon the government would press ahead with reforms to personal [...]
Tax hikes dragging investment to worst level since pandemic, CBI says June 18, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ dramatic tax hike on employment has helped push firms’ investment plans down to the worst level in five years, contributing to a downgrade in the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)’s latest economic outlook. The CBI now believe that the UK economy will only grow 1.2 per cent this year and slow down [...]
OBR ridiculed for ‘joke of a salary’ in analyst job offer May 20, 2025 The UK’s fiscal watchdog has been ridiculed for offering a “joke of a salary” after advertising for new roles. The Office for Budget Responsibility is hiring for three new “fiscal analysts” based in London with a salary range of just £38,430-52,000, despite the jobs being graded a “higher executive officer” function within the organisation. The [...]
Is this a sweet trade deal with the EU – or does it sound a bit fishy? May 19, 2025 Keir Starmer will be boasting about his latest catch in international diplomacy: a trade deal with the European Union, which the government hopes will boost the chances of landing higher growth. In an agreement that hands EU boats continued rights in British seas until 2038, slashing red tape on food checks and increasing cooperation on [...]
Boost for Rachel Reeves as UK economy booms in first quarter May 15, 2025 The UK economy surged by 0.7 per cent in the first three months of the year, official data has shown, suggesting firms boosted production ahead of Rachel Reeves’s tax rises in April and the threat of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Fresh data provided by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew [...]
Construction firms lose hope but businesses are ‘showing resilience’ April 30, 2025 Construction firms have grown despondent about their business prospects despite signs of resilience across the UK economy, a new survey has found. The sector is key to the housing secretary Angela Rayner’s plans to build 1.5m homes by 2030 though early signs suggest the ambitious target will not be met. Construction saw a bigger drop [...]
Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty? April 12, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially. At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events. Hughes came up with three possible [...]
UK growth in February smashes low expectations April 11, 2025 The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month. UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]
IFS director: Tariffs risk undermining ‘best case’ OBR forecasts April 1, 2025 Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson has raised questions about whether the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s forecasts would remain credible should President Trump slap tariffs on UK goods on Wednesday. The OBR’s report included modelling by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in January. The IMF’s analysis did not consider the potential [...]
OBR chair: Reeves is exposed to ‘inevitable’ shocks April 1, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s chair Richard Hughes said Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s small headroom means the Treasury has left itself exposed to “inevitable” economic shocks. The role of the fiscal watchdog has come under greater scrutiny since Reeves made cuts totalling £14bn in order to meet her fiscal rules at last week’s Spring Statement. [...]