Banks cool on interest rate cut expectations amid forecasting clash Economics Top City banks have pushed back their predictions for the Bank of England’s next interest rate cut as forecasters are split on whether high inflation could upend monetary policy decisions. UBS Investment Bank economist Anna Titareva pushed back a call for the Bank’s next cut from February to March after the Office for National Statistics [...]
Total UK government borrowing beats OBR forecast Economics UK government has already borrowed more this year than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast, official data has revealed, wrapping up a difficult 12 months for Rachel Reeves as she grapples with keeping public finances safe from further shocks. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated public sector borrowing to have been £11.6bn over the [...]
Starmer to U-turn on mandatory digital ID Politics Sir Keir Starmer is expected to perform another U-turn by scrapping plans to make a national digital ID compulsory for all Brits. After backtracking on a number of policies, from the farm tax to the end of winter fuel payments, the Prime Minister is set to reveal that the government will no longer make all [...]
Former OBR chair takes aim at Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules January 13, 2026 The former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility has taken aim at Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, suggesting they prevent UK public finances from building enough “resilience”. In his first public appearance since his resignation last month due to the leaked Budget, Richard Hughes said the current fiscal rules were “among the loosest” the [...]
Stride vows to protect OBR in new dividing line with Farage January 12, 2026 Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has vowed to protect the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in any future Conservative government, drawing a dividing line with Reform’s Nigel Farage on approaches to controlling public finances. Stride is expected to re-establish the Conservative Party’s firm commitment to maintaining the fiscal watchdog as an independent body scoring the effects [...]
Migrant visa applications plummet in test to Reeves January 10, 2026 Migrants’ skilled worker visa applications plummeted in December, posing a test to Rachel Reeves and economists at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to take control of public finances. New figures showed that the number of skilled worker visa applications dropped to 2,500 in December, having increased to a peak of 10,100 in April 2024. [...]
Fiscal rules are a ‘self-awarded badge of honour’ that ‘make no difference’ January 9, 2026 Fiscal rules are “largely ineffective” and fail to impose discipline on public expenditure, a new report has said, bringing into question claims made by UK Chancellors and the International Monetary Fund that a clear list of targets can stabilise public finances. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has held up her “iron-clad” fiscal rules, which hinge on changing [...]
Venezuela proves farce of political forecasting January 6, 2026 If history teaches us anything, it's that political forecasters almost always get it wrong. Just look at Venezuela, writes Paul Ormerod.
Labour ‘quietly hammering’ workers as pensioners benefit, think tank warns January 2, 2026 The Labour government is “quietly hammering” workers following the Autumn Budget’s stealth tax raid while pensioners and those on benefits are set to enjoy a jump in income, a think tank has said. In the November Budget, Rachel Reeves extended the freeze on income tax thresholds until 2031 – a move which is viewed as [...]
Rachel Reeves: Leak to the FT was inaccurate December 10, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves slammed briefings provided to media outlets in the lead-up to the Budget as she referred to a specific Financial Times news report which had “partial and inaccurate” information. In a Treasury Select Committee hearing on Wednesday morning, the Chancellor hit out at leaks in the months leading up to the Budget, adding [...]