Labour’s welfare U-turn spikes fears of tax hikes June 27, 2025 The Labour government has confirmed its latest U-turn with a significant retreat on welfare reform dealing a crushing blow to Rachel Reeves’ waning fiscal headroom. The bill initially targeted restrictions on personal independence payments (PIP) and limited the sickness-related element of universal credit in a bid to shed £5bn from the welfare budget by 2030. Under [...]
Berenberg: Labour welfare row will lead to tax hikes and higher interest rates June 26, 2025 Divisive party politics at the top of the Labour government stand to prevent the Bank of England from making further interest rate cuts, given struggles to curb spending, a leading City broker has warned. The government is embroiled in another row over spending cuts, as £4.8bn in welfare budget savings look set to be watered down following a [...]
Higher tax ‘inevitable’ as PM makes defence spending pledge June 24, 2025 Keir Starmer’s fresh commitment to ramp up defence spending to five per cent as a share of GDP by 2035 will almost certainly have to be funded by more tax hikes, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)’ Paul Johnson has warned. The government’s pledge to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence and a [...]
Spending review: Rachel Reeves pledges £15.6bn for regional transport June 4, 2025 The government has made its biggest spending announcement since Labour’s drubbing at the local elections in May, with a pledge from Chancellor Rachel Reeves to double investment in local transport over the next five years. A £15.6bn cash injection will form a major pillar of the 11 June spending review, which the Treasury says would [...]
ONS set to weigh up cost to public purse of British Steel rescue April 29, 2025 The UK’s official statistics body has begun an assessment of the cost of running British Steel since the loss-making business was rescued by the government, City AM can reveal, in what could prove to be another blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal targets. The UK’s top statistician Professor Sir Ian Diamond said the Office for [...]
Londoners earn the most but spend very little, IFS finds April 11, 2025 Londoners top the ranking for income per head across the UK, yet spend very little after housing costs are taken into account, according to research by leading think tanks. A new report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) signals that high housing costs in the capital city [...]
IFS boss: We’re screwed with or without trade deals April 7, 2025 The director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has suggested the UK could be heading for a recession as a trade deal may not be enough to revive crumbling markets or prevent a slump in economic growth. Paul Johnson, who is set to leave the leading economics think tank in the summer, told Times [...]
IFS director: Tariffs risk undermining ‘best case’ OBR forecasts April 1, 2025 Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson has raised questions about whether the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s forecasts would remain credible should President Trump slap tariffs on UK goods on Wednesday. The OBR’s report included modelling by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in January. The IMF’s analysis did not consider the potential [...]
Rachel Reeves has already lost half of her £9.9bn headroom March 28, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves has had £5bn wiped off her headroom less than 48 hours after she delivered her Spring Statement, a calculation by Bloomberg Economics has suggested. Chancellor Reeves has received several warnings from leading economists at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) that her headroom risks getting [...]
Reeves ‘lost gamble’ and is likely to raise taxes, IFS claims March 27, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves is “likely” to raise taxes at this year’s Autumn Budget, Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson has warned, as he claimed an extension to income tax thresholds would make for the “easiest political win”. Reeves’ announced her £40bn tax raid at the last Autumn Budget in October. The bulk of [...]