UK unemployment rate to hit 5 per cent next year, EY predicts November 3, 2025 The UK’s unemployment rate is set to rise to five per cent in the beginning of next year before falling back, a leading forecaster has said. In its latest update on forecasts for UK growth, EY ITEM Club has suggested that the UK jobs market is set to see a further decline in the next [...]
Will the Autumn Budget push up inflation? October 30, 2025 For a few weeks, there was one thing Rachel Reeves appeared to speak about more than anything else: inflation. Earlier this month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed inflation hit 3.8 per cent in the year to September, nearly double the Bank of England’s target rate. The IMF and the OECD said the UK [...]
Fresh food inflation continues despite fall in overall shop prices October 28, 2025 The price of fresh food has continued to climb despite a broader softening in inflation at UK shops, according to new data. Fresh food inflation increased to 4.3 per cent year on year in October, against growth of 4.1 per cent in September and above the three-month average of 4.2 per cent, according to the [...]
Supermarkets call on Chancellor to ‘bring inflation to heel’ October 27, 2025 Britain’s largest supermarkets have called on Rachel Reeves to exclude all shops from upcoming changes to to business rates, warning that any hikes to their input costs would further stoke food inflation that is already at over double the Bank of England’s target. In an open letter to the Chancellor, bosses from the UK’s nine [...]
Are we heading for a 1980s-style inflation spike? October 27, 2025 What lessons should policymakers from the Lawson Boom and subsequent recession? Asks Daniel Mahoney High inflation, unreliable data and a government banking on growth. While this sounds familiar, it was also the situation at the end of the 1980s – the “Lawson Boom”. We know what happened next; inflation soared further and was only eventually [...]
Reeves ‘to raise national living wage’ in extra burden for firms October 25, 2025 Rachel Reeves is set to confirm a rise in the National Living Wage by four per cent at the Budget, according to reports, in an electorally popular decision that could have severe implications for businesses and the wider UK economy. Businesses have repeatedly warned that the double cost of last year’s tax raid on employers’ [...]
Consumer confidence remains downbeat amid Budget wariness October 24, 2025 A small lift in consumer confidence over October has failed to take a leading index into positive territory amid fears that the upcoming Budget could damage personal finances. Labour has made boosting living standards a central mission in government while Chancellor Rachel Reeves has recently talked up plans to lower the cost of living for [...]
UK SMEs brace for inflation strain as confidence slips October 22, 2025 Small business (SME) optimism is faltering as sticky inflation, labour shortages and rising borrowing costs pile pressure on firms already stretched by thin margins and political uncertainty. Small business confidence dipped in September, with recent Opinium polling suggesting that UK entrepreneurs are increasingly uneasy about the months ahead. The latest figures from the National Federation [...]
Benefits to increase more than expected next April October 22, 2025 Most state benefits will rise by 3.8 per cent next year in line with September’s rate of inflation, exceeding earlier predictions by the Treasury watchdog. September’s CPI inflation figures are used to calculate the increase to many welfare bills which take effect next April, including universal credit and personal independence payments (Pips). The rise is [...]
Gilt yields drop as Reeves crosses fingers to reap benefits October 22, 2025 Gilt yields have fallen as investors breathed a sign of relief after inflation came in below economist expectations, with top analysts claiming an interest rate cut this year is “very much in play” while adding that Rachel Reeves could be in luck. Gilts, the name for UK government bonds, have regained momentum in the UK [...]