Inflation can become a self-fulfilling prophecy December 19, 2025 Managing inflation expectations will be a key challenge in the coming year, says Daniel Mahoney When does a prophecy become a reality? Since the 1970s, it has been conventional wisdom that the key to controlling inflation is controlling inflation expectations – but outside economics circles it is not often appreciated why. However, managing expectations increasingly [...]
‘Chance of 2026 recession’ despite interest rate cut – follow live December 18, 2025 Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. The Bank of England has handed Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Labour government a highly-desired Christmas present today. The central bank confirmed a chop to interest rates falling to 3.75 per cent – the lowest in nearly three years. It comes after inflation undershot expectations on Wednesday providing [...]
Is the consensus on central bank independence starting to fray? December 18, 2025 Across the globe, leaders like Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron are challenging institutional independence and exerting their influence over monetary policy – but they could come to regret it, says Helen Thomas For much of the past three decades, central bank independence has been treated as a settled question. Monetary policy was best left to [...]
Interest rate cut likely after inflation undershoots expectations December 17, 2025 Inflation dropped far below market expectations in November, official data has shown, easing Bank of England doves’ nerves a day before a decision on whether to cut interest rates is revealed. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation hit 3.2 per cent in the year to November, staying well above the Bank’s 2 per [...]
FTSE 100 Live: Inflation eases more than expected ahead of rate decision December 17, 2025 Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog. We’ve had the latest inflation data this morning, which has shown the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2 per cent in the 12 months to November 2025. This eased from 3.6 per cent in October 2025. It also beats figures pencilled in by economists, [...]
Cut interest rates, City AM Shadow MPC tells Bank of England December 17, 2025 The Bank of England should cut interest rates by 25 basis points when it meets tomorrow, City AM’s Shadow Monetary Policy Committee has said in a three-way split decision. In the face of the dual problems of high inflation and a continued jobs market decline, the majority of experts on City AM’s nine-strong Shadow MPC [...]
Inflation to remain sticky before interest rates call December 15, 2025 Inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high in fresh data to be released on Wednesday, adding greater scrutiny to the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rates decision. Price growth is set to remain at 3.5 per cent in the year to November, a slight fall from the month before, according to consensus established by Trading [...]
Interest rates: Bank of England hawks to ‘look through’ Budget’s disinflation December 9, 2025 Bank of England policymakers struck a hawkish tone on the future path of interest rates despite acknowledging that the upcoming Budget would lower inflation. Appearing before MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Bank staff analysis agreed with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that measures in Rachel Reeves’ November statement would strip 0.5 percentage points [...]
Economic uncertainty leads to dwindling vacancies in London December 8, 2025 Permanent hires in London fell for the eighth consecutive month in November, driven by ongoing economic uncertainty and dwindling vacancies. According to the latest report from professional services firm KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), the decrease in hiring quickened in the capital last month, with the reduction in permanent vacancies one of [...]
Bank of England decision to cut interest rates could be ‘closer call’ December 5, 2025 The Bank of England’s expected decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points could be a “closer call” than markets predict, analysts have said. Markets have all but priced in interest rates falling to 3.75 per cent at the Bank’s next decision in mid-December after a flurry of data points pointed to a continued [...]