Labour is doomed to irrelevance
Social democratic parties across Western Europe have failed after abandoning support for capitalism and pursuing woke agendas. The same will happen to Labour, says Paul Ormerod
So Keir Starmer wants a reset with the European Union. In typical Starmer fashion, it is as clear as mud as to what this will actually involve.
But there is in fact a great deal which Starmer could learn from the countries of Western Europe. The Prime Minister himself shows little interest in ideas, but perhaps whoever is advising him this week could bring him up to speed.
The message is a stark one. Parties with the same background and pedigree as Labour have already seen large falls in support in Europe during the 21st century.
The Parti Socialiste (PS) in France is, like Labour, a centre-left party. For decades, it was one of the two largest parties in France. In 2012, the PS won both the presidency and a majority in the French parliament. Now, it is a small minority party not even as big as the Lib Dems in the UK.
The Italian equivalent, the PSI, was formed in the late 19th century and for much of the next century was a major player in Italian politics. To all intents and purposes it no longer exists.
In Sweden, a country almost synonymous with social democratic policies, the Social Democrats remain important. But between 1924 and 1994 they took between 40 and 50 per cent of the vote at each election. In the last two, they are down to 30 per cent, their lowest since 1920.
Germany is perhaps the most striking example. The SPD in Germany was a major force in European politics for around a century. But in the federal election last year, it secured only 16 per cent of the vote. It was third, behind not just its traditional centre-right rival, the CDU/CSU, but also the Alternative fur Deutschland.
Across Western Europe, parties from the same political stable as Labour had already lost their traditional core support well before Starmer came to power in the UK
In short, across Western Europe, parties from the same political stable as Labour had already lost their traditional core support well before Starmer came to power in the UK.
Historically, these parties grew in the opening decades of the 20th century. The industrial working class made up the bulk of both society as a whole and the support of these parties.
During the 19th century, capitalism had lifted average living standards very substantially above those experienced by almost all humans prior to the Industrial Revolution.
But life was still pretty grim. The social democratic parties had a real mission and sense of purpose. Despite some of their rhetoric, they never wanted to overthrow capitalism. Rather, they wanted more of its benefits to go to ordinary people.
This was achieved decades ago. Societies, despite a widespread myth, are much more equal than they were in the 19th century.
For much of the time after the Second World War, centre-left and centre-right parties competed not on ideological grounds, but on who would be more competent in government and deliver more material progress.
Towards the end of the 20th century, social democratic parties such as Labour became gradually captured by middle class activists holding luxury beliefs.
An excellent illustration is the guidance issued on behalf of the Labour government of Wales on 5 May 2026.
Wales suffers from low productivity, low pay and poor health and education services, all major issues of direct concern to most people
Yet the Cardiff-based Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning organisation, backed by Labour, chose to advise nursery schools in Wales to report “racist incidents” to the police. The toddlers were to be instructed about the evils of white privilege.
Two days later, on 7 May, the Labour Party in Wales received 11 per cent of the total vote, finishing a very poor third.
For Starmer and his ilk, we can see the future. And the future is Wales. Unless Labour changes tack dramatically, it is doomed to irrelevance.
Paul Ormerod is an honorary professor at the Alliance Business School at the University of Manchester. You can follow him on Instagram @profpaulormerod