Keep an eye on geopolitics: it matters to the forex markets May 26, 2009 OPPORTUNISTIC currency traders have always been quick to price in oil price spikes, non-standard monetary policies and signs of green shoots, sending currencies up and down depending on the level of risk aversion in the markets. Risk appetite, or the lack of it, has been a major driver of currency movements since the start of [...]
DOLLAR BULLS WAKE UP TO US REALITY May 26, 2009 AT the start of the year, I wrote that the biggest nightmare facing dollar longs would be the prospect of a failed US Treasury auction creating massive capital outflows from dollar-denominated assets. For a while those worries appeared misplaced as the greenback rallied on the safe haven bid. Now the full force of those fears [...]
Apple jumps as Dow Jones rallies May 26, 2009 US stocks climbed more than 2 per cent yesterday as data showing the biggest monthly jump in consumer confidence in six years lifted hopes of an economic rebound, and a brokerage upgrade of Apple drove sharp gains on the Nasdaq. Apple’s shares closed nearly 7 per cent higher after Morgan Stanley said the iPhone will [...]
US consumer confidence boosts late London trading May 26, 2009 BETTER than expected consumer confidence data out of the US gave the FTSE 100 a much-needed boost yesterday afternoon, after Asia’s sell-off – driven by concerns of heightening geopolictical tension on the Korean peninsula – infected the London markets in early trading. “Following the release of the US consumer confidence data there was an immediate [...]
Nikkei to be dragged down by demand slump May 25, 2009 THINGS can’t get any worse for Japan, it seems. That at least is the view held by the Bank of Japan, which upgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in three years, despite a record economic contraction in the first quarter of 2009. GDP data released last Thursday showed that the Japanese [...]
THE GLOOMY NEWS ISN’T ALL OVER YET May 25, 2009 THERE was a little corrective activity in the middle of last week, but the story this quarter for the S&P 500 has been positive: the index has notched up gains of over 11 per cent. But we shouldn’t start getting too excited just yet. The S&P’s gains sit uncomfortably with the gloomy rhetoric that is [...]
THE TIPSTER May 25, 2009 RETAIL sales might have been under pressure during the downturn but last week’s bigger-than-expected rise and a flurry of good corporate results have boosted the outlook. Picks of the sector are Mothercare, Britvic and online retailer ASOS. Mothercare came out with some great results on Wednesday and although the shares look relatively expensive at a [...]
Gilt prices on course to fall as UK public debt threatens credit rating May 25, 2009 MARKETS were rattled last Thursday when ratings agency Standard & Poor’s announced that it had downgraded its outlook on Britain’s AAA credit rating to “negative” from “stable” for the first time since October 1993. Lower credit ratings result in higher borrowing costs because the borrower is considered more likely to default on its debt. If [...]
Traders should look to Asia for volatility and long-term bets May 25, 2009 WHATEVER Alistair Darling might be saying about V-shaped recoveries, in Europe and the US most of the talk is about a slow and protracted upturn. It’s otherwise in Asia, where economies are widely tipped to be the first to pull out of the global recession. There are three reasons for this: firstly, lower commodity prices [...]
POLITICS CAN RARELY MOVE THE MARKETS May 25, 2009 When Richard Nixon was asked what he would be doing if he wasn’t President, he said: “Buying stocks on Wall Street”. One can only imagine the headlines. But it does raise the question, do politics and the markets ever mix? With our political system being dragged through the gutter will there be an effect on [...]
