Horse Racing Betting Tips: Glitters can go well but may find one Too Darn Hot
BACK in 2015, Qatar ploughed huge sums of money into the Qatar Goodwood Festival (aka Glorious Goodwood) and the main beneficiary was the Qatar Sussex Stakes (3.35pm), which is now worth a cool £1million.
It is one of the most valuable mile races in the world and the majority of the prize money went back to the sponsors 12 months ago when the Qatar Racing-owned Lightning Spear became the second seven-year-old to win the prize in two years following Here Comes When in 2017.
That may have been an anomaly because it is normally the Classic generation who prosper in this race, with three-year-olds winning seven of the nine renewals between 2008 and 2016.
The hottest three-year-old this year, according to the betting at least, is John Gosden’s TOO DARN HOT who it is fair to say has had an up and down season so far.
Defeats at York, the Curragh and Royal Ascot got his campaign off to an inauspicious start, but there were excuses and he proved the doubters wrong with an impressive performance in the Prix Jean Prat over seven furlongs at Deauville a few weeks ago.
The son of Dubawi has always shown plenty of speed and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if Gosden opts to drop him back to sprint distances later in the year.
However, the demands of Goodwood should suit him very well and as long as the ground doesn’t get too soft, he has to be the one they all have to beat at 5/4 with Ladbrokes.
His biggest danger could well turn out to be my old friend LORD GLITTERS who won the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and will relish any rain that falls.
Although David O’Meara’s six-year-old has some very strong form at Ascot, he was also an excellent third in this race last year on his first visit to the Sussex Downs.
As is often the case at Goodwood, he was blocked in his run at a crucial time and his hold-up style means he is always going to be a hostage to fortune at this track.
The main worry for his supporters is that he has to concede 8lbs to the three-year-olds, often too tough a task, but if they disappoint he will be there to pick up the pieces.
This is a very solid Group One miler and he looks comfortably the best each-way bet in the race at 7/1 with Coral.
The bookmakers have CIRCUS MAXIMUS in as Too Darn Hot’s biggest threat and it’s easy to see why, as Aidan O’Brien’s contender beat today’s favourite in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting.
It was a brave move by the master of Ballydoyle to bring this son of Galileo back to a mile, yet his decision was vindicated in no uncertain terms as his horse held off the late challenge of another Gosden runner in King Of Comedy.
Connections of Circus Maximus will be hoping for as much rain as possible, while the Gosden and Lloyd-Webber team will be praying it stays away.
In any case, it looks set to be a fascinating contest between these two, as well as Charlie Hills’ Phoenix Of Spain who couldn’t have been more impressive in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh back in May.
The Lope De Vega colt didn’t seem to run his race at Ascot, but that can happen with some horses and Hills will be hoping to see an improved performance today.
He certainly can’t be ruled out based on his Irish Guineas effort, although he has plenty to prove after that Ascot run and on that basis, I’m prepared to leave him out of my top three.
The remaining runners don’t seem good enough and this looks the perfect race for Too Darn Hot to give his in-form jockey and trainer another day to remember.
BILL ESDAILE’S SUSSEX STAKES 1-2-3
1 TOO DARN HOT
2 LORD GLITTERS
3 CIRCUS MAXIMUS