FOREX ANALYST PICKS
FOREX STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Short Kiwi dollar-dollar, sterling-dollar and Swiss franc-yen
Expertise: Fundamental analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Underlying fundamental themes are starting to kick in – notably risk aversion is very early in a swell. I’ll keep an eye on risk-sensitive pairs through the near-term (as well as expectations for US stimulus withdrawal and Greece issues); but they are individual considerations for now. I’m short Kiwi dollar-dollar from $0.8070 with a 100 pip stop and first target. Sterling-dollar looks primed for a pivot break below $1.63 and Swiss franc-yen on a congestion break to reversal below ¥95.25.
FOREX STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Long dollar-Canadian dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
Dollar-Canadian dollar positioning has argued for gains since prices completed a head and shoulders bottom chart pattern with a break above Ca$0.9667. Prices are pulling back from support-turned-resistance at Ca$0.9818 toward the bottom of a rising channel set from the 2 May low at Ca$0.97, which I expect to offer a long entry opportunity to capitalise on risk aversion following the end of QE2. Dollar-loonie has a strong inverse correlation with the S&P 500 and a move lower in US shares ought to push the pair higher.
FOREX STRATEGIST
JOEL KRUGER
My pick: Long dollar-Swiss franc
Expertise: Technical analysis
Average time frame of trades: 4 weeks
The latest sharp drop to fresh record lows into the SFr0.8300s has been quite extreme, with the market now violently oversold and in desperate need of a major corrective rebound at a minimum. It is not too often that daily, weekly and monthly charts are oversold at the same time, and in our opinion, the very bearish price action warns that a material reversal is imminent. Position: long at SFr0.8350 for an open objective; stop only on a daily close (10pm UK time) below SFr0.8240.