FOREX ANALYST PICKS
FOREX STRATEGIST
JOHN KICKLIGHTER
My pick: Long sterling-Swissie, short Kiwi-dollar and Swissie-yen
Expertise: Fundamental analysis with risk management
Average time frame of trades: 1 day to 1 week
Last week’s short euro-dollar setup with a $1.4300 breakout worked out well; but without a $1.4000 break the trend dried up. I’ll keep an eye on this benchmark pair; but in the meantime, both my short Kiwi dollar-dollar and Swiss franc-yen positions are in play (the latter its first target at ¥94.25 so the stop is trailed). More speculative this week, I’m looking for a bullish sterling-Swiss franc break above SFr1.3900 as the Greek crisis spreads unevenly.
FOREX STRATEGIST
ILYA SPIVAK
My pick: Short euro-dollar
Expertise: Global macro
Average time frame of trades: 1 week to 6 months
The euro is bouncing higher as a lack of new bad news on the Greek debt crisis front allows for a relief rally. Indeed, bears are likely to at least wait for the outcome of the EU leaders’ summit on Thursday to resume selling in earnest. However, the situation itself has not improved, with the chance of a default as priced into CDS rates actually up from last week (81 per cent). I will look for short entry opportunities below the $1.46 figure in the days ahead.
FOREX STRATEGIST
DAVID RODRIGUEZ
My pick: Long dollar-Canadian dollar
Expertise: System trading
Average time frame of trades: 2 days to 10 weeks
The dollar remains in a fairly steady short-term uptrend against the Canadian dollar, and I think it will continue to recover off of multi-year lows. Our proprietary FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index data showed retail trading crowds remained heavily net-long dollar-Canadian dollar from September 2010 through mid-May 2011. The fact that crowds are now net-short underlines the sentiment shift and gives contrarians a consistent signal that the pair could continue higher.