England Euro 2016 qualification: Does a 100% record in qualifying mean anything for the tournament?
England can arrive at next year's European Championships as the only team with a 100 per cent record in qualifying if they beat Estonia and Lithuania in their remaining two games.
But how often does such a successful qualifying campaign translate into tournament success?
As the only European national team to have eight wins from eight games during the latest qualifying period – scoring 26 goals and conceding just three – Roy Hodgson's team is just two wins away from becoming the first England side and only sixth team ever to record a spotless European Championships qualifying run.
Having scored more goals than every team but Poland in qualifying, the Three Lions have cause for quiet confidence when they cross the channel for Euro 2016 in France – even if San Marino and Lithuania haven't offered much resistance.
Read more: Three Lions are poised for Euro tilt, insists Theo
Yet of the five teams to have previously qualified for the tournament unblemished, only one has gone on to win it – Spain in 2012.
Team with 100pc qualifying record | Competition | Finish |
---|---|---|
France | Euro 1992 | Group stage |
Czech Republic | Euro 2000 | Group stage |
France | Euro 2004 | Quarter-finals |
Germany | Euro 2012 | Semi-finals |
Spain | Euro 2012 | Winner |
Teams to have reached the World Cup with a perfect record have similarly struggled to translate that to tournament success – with Vincent Del Bosque's great Spain side the once again the only exception since the qualifying process expanded beyond the three teams per group for early tournaments.
Team with 100pc qualifying record | Competition | Finish |
---|---|---|
West Germany | 1962 World Cup | Quarter-finals |
Soviet Union | 1962 World Cup | Quarter-finals |
West Germany | 1982 World Cup | Runners-up |
Poland* | 1982 World Cup | Semi-finals |
Netherlands | 2010 World Cup | Runners-up |
Spain | 2010 World Cup | Winner |
Of course, a perfect qualifying record is a pretty good indicator of a team packed with quality players. But a shield of invincibility in qualifying usually turns faulty at the main event as often different teams face much tougher tests, under increased pressure.
In fact, England's relationship between an impressive qualifying campaign and a successful tournament is especially fractured.
Under Fabio Capello England won nine of their 10 games on the way to the 2010 World Cup where four pathetic performances were topped by a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Germany in the first knock-out stage.
Tournament | Points-per-game in qualifying | Goals-per-game in qualifying | Tournament finish |
---|---|---|---|
2010 World Cup | 2.7 | 3.4 | Round of 16 |
Euro 2004 | 2.5 | 1.8 | Quarter-finals |
2006 World Cup | 2.5 | 1.7 | Quarter-finals |
1998 World Cup | 2.4 | 1.9 | Round of 16 |
With two easy-looking encounters remaining, England could even make this qualifying campaign the highest-scoring in their history.
Wayne Rooney and co have already made it the most goal-heavy European Championship qualification run with 26 goals scored, and are just eight away from the record 34 netted in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup.
For all the hand-wringing about England's lack of attacking adventure that usually greets their exit from tournaments, the team's prowess in front of goal has increased in recent years with the last five major tournament qualifying campaigns the team's highest scoring in history.