Covid passports could cost venues up to £2bn in lost turnover
Vaccine passports could drive Covid infections if people are more inclined to visit poorly ventilated pubs instead of larger venues, according to a leaked government impact assessment.
Concerns about the policy – recently adopted in Scotland- are set out in a report written by the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport [DCMS] and seen by The Telegraph.
Event organisers would see dramatically reduced turnover if the policy was introduced, the analysis of the economic and social impact of Covid-19 certification concluded,
The analysis estimated the turnover of affected venues could drop between £345m and £2.067bn following the introduction of vaccine passports.
It would also require a recruitment drive for thousands of stewards which may be a struggle given current labour shortages, the analysis, dated from early September, added.
The policy could create a “potential displacement between live events venues and hospitality venues,” it reportedly stated.
It was quoted as stating: “A core concern in the sector is that certification could displace activity and business away from music venues to, say, pubs with music and late alcohol licences, etc. which could be counterintuitive and potentially counter-productive.”
The analysis also said sports fans could be displaced from “structured and well ventilated sports stadia.”
“This could lead to them attending unstructured and poorly ventilated pubs instead, where they will have access to more alcohol than if there were in the stadia,” the document added, pointing to case rises linked to pubs even when England were playing abroad during the Euros.
Westminster’s proposal for covid certification would see proof of vaccination or test results required at indoor settings with 500 or more attendees, outdoor settings with 4,000 or more, any venue with 10,000 or more, and nightclubs.
The cost of vaccine passports for the Royal Albert Hall would be around £1,050 extra for each event it hosted while each Premier League club would have to pay around an extra £285,000 a season in stewarding costs, DCMS estimated.
However, the analysis pointed to opinion polls that showed more people would feel safer to attend large-scale events with the policy.
A DCMS spokesperson said: “There is good evidence to suggest certification would have a beneficial impact on infection rates and it would also avoid the need for capacity caps or closures.”
Many hospitality and leisure bosses in England have been strongly opposed to such a scheme, arguing it would introduce further cost pressures at a time when the sector is already on its knees.