Covid: Falling cases could be ‘false peak’, scientist warns
A decline in the number of Covid-19 cases across the UK could be a “false peak” and figures over the next fortnight will be crucial in showing the course of the pandemic, a top scientist has said.
Data released yesterday showed coronavirus cases had fallen for the third consecutive day, with 36,389 new infections marking a further drop from the 46,558 logged on 20 July.
Professor Adam Kucharski, an epidemiologist and mathematician at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the figures were an “early sign” that transmission rates could be falling.
But he said it was too soon to determine whether this was a permanent trend, warning “we’ve seen false peaks before” and that there could be a post-lockdown surge in cases.
“Of course that change on Monday, that big reopening, has not yet shown up in the data. So I think the next week or two is going to be crucial to know if this is genuinely a slowdown of a potential peak, or if we’ve got more transmission to come,” he told BBC Radio 4.
He added that the so-called pingdemic of self-isolation caused by NHS test and trace app was a reflection of “higher contact patterns across the population”.
“Vaccines are enabling more interactions to happen, but there’s an awful lot of Covid out there. If you go out and have contacts, it’s very likely you’ll be near someone who has the virus.”
It comes after Public Health England announced that a new variant of Covid had been detected and is now under investigation.
The investigation began on Wednesday into the variant currently known as B.1.621. Just 16 cases have been found so far.
The government has now expanded a daily testing scheme to critical workers such as police, firefighters, border staff and transport staff to help combat staff shortages.