CITY A.M. | SHADOW MPC VOTES TO HOLD POLICY
ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“I vote to hold both rates and QE. The economy is stronger than some feared, with survey data pointing to a slight rise in activity, but inflation remains well above target.”
SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Stop gilt purchases but offer ECB-style liquidity support to banks to ease upward pressure on funding costs and lending rates. Gilt yields have been suppressed and it is absurd for the Bank to add to the pressure.”
GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“Hold. The Bank is on the final leg of its additional £75bn asset purchases, being completed later this month. Better economic news suggests waiting until next month before deciding whether more QE is needed.”
TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS
“The composition of growth is very worrying. Net exports down, consumption down, broad money supply growth negative. I vote to hold rates and want £75bn more QE when the current tranche ends in February.”
VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“Keep policy on hold this month, but stand ready to increase QE in February when the current round of asset purchases is completed. The recovery has regained a touch of momentum, but this is unlikely to last.”
GRAEME LEACH | IOD
“There is no need to change policy this month but events on the continent mean that further QE looks very likely over the coming months. The euro crisis started 2012 quietly, but that is unlikely to persist.”
HOLGER SCHMIEDING | BERENBERG BANK
“No change. The economy is probably in a mild recession, and inflation looks set to fall sharply. But as leading indicators seem to stabilise there is no need for dramatic steps now – we can decide on more QE in February.”
ROSS WALKER | RBS
“The latest survey data improved slightly, so although the outlook remains precarious there is no pressing need to loosen policy. The lack of clarity on Eurozone policy also weighs in favour of holding policy settings.”
VICKY PRYCE | FTI CONSULTING
“Hold on interest rates and QE but keep on watch as inflation concerns decline. Recent US payroll data was encouraging but Eurozone seems to be in recession and prospects of more euro crises in 2012 remain.”