City A.M. | MPC votes 7-2 against any new policy
ALLISTER HEATH | CITY A.M.
“No new quantitative easing and no further cut to rates. Quantitative easing (QE) needs to be halted – despite worrying signs that the economy has ground to a halt again, not least dire purchasing managers’ index (PMI) business survey figures – because it is a key contributor to the rise of the zombie firms, which is holding back the liquidation of bad investments and the reallocation of capital.”
GRAEME LEACH | INSTITUTE OF DIRECTORS
“There doesn’t need to be any loosening or tightening in monetary policy at present. Both the Bank’s headline interest rate and QE should stay where they are, but with a bias towards engaging in more QE if broad money growth begins to slow.”
GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“No change on rates or QE. Tentative signs of improvement in the economic outlook are encouraging. But the recovery remains vulnerable suggesting policy may need to be held loose for quite some time. Global events may dictate whether the government needs to engage in more easing measures.”
VICKY REDWOOD | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“No change on rates, but £50bn more QE. Although the chancellor’s ‘raid’ on the QE fund amounts to a further monetary loosening, it lacks the announcement effect of more QE. Cut rates to 0.25 per cent too – the obstacles to a rate cut probably aren’t as insurmountable as the MPC has made out.”
ROBERT WOOD | BERENBERG BANK
“The UK needs more monetary medicine – £50bn more QE. Output hasn’t grown for a year and the near-term outlook is poor. Squeezed incomes, the UK’s main trading partner in recession and austerity add up to a tough 2013. Policy should not be swayed by higher inflation in the near term driven by tuition fee rises.”
SIMON WARD | HENDERSON
“Hold policy. Recent faster money supply growth suggests better economic performance in the first half of 2013 and a diminished prospect of inflation returning to target further out. However. the Financial Policy Committee’s call for more capital-raising risks triggering another round of bank deleveraging.”
VICKY PRYCE | FORMER GOVT ADVISER
“Hold but keep extra QE option open for next year. The Autumn Statement added little fiscally in the short term and doubts will remain on whether even the weak 1.2 per cent OBR growth forecast for 2013 can be met as Eurozone GDP growth remains anaemic.”
TREVOR WILLIAMS | LLOYDS TSB
“Rates and QE should remain on hold. With QE kept at £375bn, the focus is now on the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) which does appear at the moment to be offering a modest boost to household borrowing. Though early days, it should be given time to work. Meanwhile, the economy remains flat.”
ROSS WALKER | RBS
“No change on rates or QE. There is no pressing need to extend QE gilt purchases at this point. The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is up and, if not quite running, then taking a leisurely stroll. In addition, the transfer of gilt coupon payments from the BoE to the Treasury entails a modest monetary easing.”