Why forward guidance 2.0 is not only laughable but entirely unnecessary February 12, 2014 AT A recent meeting of the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, I was debating with Capital Economics’s Roger Bootle whether interest rates should rise. His view was that they should not rise yet. I challenged him in the obvious way: “If not now, when?” To this he responded: “Later.” Roger’s form of “forward guidance” is, in [...]
We’re building a virtual ring of steel to tackle the threat of cyber crime February 12, 2014 UTTER the words “cyber crime” and many minds will conjure up an image of an awkward teenager, tapping away in their bedroom well into the early hours. But cyber crime can be much scarier than that. Threats today also come from criminal networks and foreign governments that deploy cyber weapons. Some of these assailants are [...]
When bureaucracy goes wrong: The Environment Agency and onion futures February 12, 2014 THERE is something about onions that brings out the worst in bureaucrats. Orlando Figes’s A People’s Tragedy chronicles the early years of the Russian revolution. Under war communism, the Bolsheviks attempted to exert state control over the entire economy. A long list of vegetables was drawn up, specifying the prices at which they could be [...]
Letters to the Editor – 13/02 – Confused guidance, Scottish sterling, Best of Twitter February 12, 2014 Confused guidance [Re: Carney’s new focus is spare capacity. Here’s what you need to know, yesterday] Having clearly demonstrated that it is utterly incapable of producing credible forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, the Monetary Policy Committee is now going to determine policy based on something (spare capacity) that is not only unforecastable, but unmeasurable [...]
An independent Scotland should use the pound without England’s permission. Here’s why February 12, 2014 The pound could still be an independent Scotland's best bet. As chancellor George Osborne is set to rule out a currency union with an independent Scotland, a Yes vote might make ignoring Osborne the smart choice. Sam Bowman, research director at the Adam Smith Institute, says that "an independent Scotland would not need England’s permission [...]
Flooding crisis: A case study in the failure of government on all levels February 11, 2014 THE STATE’S many faces have been tearing pieces out of each other as the water level rises around London commuter towns. Who is to blame for England’s flooding crisis? Eric Pickles said it was the Environment Agency, but now thinks everyone should work together. Labour’s Lord Smith, the Agency’s head, has criticised spending cuts. David [...]
Business is under attack: It’s time for companies to stand up for themselves February 11, 2014 THERE was a time when corporate communication was straightforward. The chief audiences were shareholders and analysts. There was a well-established way of reaching them through the financial media. The combination of the financial crisis and technological change has created a new landscape. The crisis brought into sharp relief the negative externalities that business can create. [...]
The Docklands legacy can help fix London’s chronic housing crisis February 11, 2014 LONDON’S housing crisis is caused largely by a chronic shortage of new homes, which is pushing the average house price in the capital north of £500,000. Only 18,000 new homes were completed last year, barely a third as many as are needed to match population growth and household formation. There is no silver bullet to [...]
Letters to the Editor – 12/02 – Eurozone failings, The praise game, Best of Twitter February 11, 2014 Eurozone failings [Re: Globalisation lay behind the Eurozone crisis – but it has also rescued the euro, yesterday] An interesting analysis, but let’s not diminish the role of economic mismanagement and deep structural issues in the Eurozone crisis. As is shown by the current emerging markets chaos, it can be all too easy to blame [...]
Globalisation lay behind the Eurozone crisis – but it has also rescued the euro February 10, 2014 THE ARCHITECTS of the European single currency apparently paid little heed to globalisation or the rise of China. The Delors Report in 1989, which set up economic and monetary union in Europe, didn’t mention either of them. Nor did the first official European proposal for monetary union, the Werner Plan in 1970. In retrospect this [...]