The World Economy: Why forward-looking markets may soon start to anticipate a difficult 2015 January 5, 2014 GLOBAL growth picked up in 2013, ending the year at a solid pace. This strength should carry over into early 2014, but momentum is likely to wane. The global economy may be entering the late stage of the cycle, characterised by rising capacity constraints, increased inflationary pressure and tightening liquidity. Monetary trends predicted recent economic [...]
British Politics: The 2014 events that will settle the next election January 5, 2014 WE ARE in a state of unusually high political uncertainty. By this stage in the electoral cycle, one usually has a sense of who the next winner is likely to be. But this time we have a high level of unpredictability. The 2015 election will be the first ever with the date known well in [...]
Letters to the Editor – 06/01 – Gold speculation, Payday lending, Best of Twitter January 5, 2014 Gold speculation [Re: Here’s why Capital Economics thinks gold will bounce back this year, Thursday] Buying gold at current prices is speculation, and not just over the potential removal of Indian import restrictions. Its price tells you about fear in an economy at any given point – and there just isn’t that fear around that [...]
Monetary Policy: Why 2014 should be a turning point for western economies January 5, 2014 SINCE the 1970s, years ending with a 4 have seen turning points in the global economy and had a particular significance for central bankers. This year is the fortieth anniversary of 1974. This was the most turbulent post-war year for the major western economies before the global financial crisis. The first recession in the global [...]
Investment Trends: A year for stock-pickers: 2014 investment winners and losers January 5, 2014 AFTER a surprisingly strong 2013 in many equity markets, I am cautiously optimistic for 2014. One of the key reasons for my slight wariness is that most of the predictions I am reading at the moment are unambiguously positive. There is an unusual consensus around a generally bullish outlook for stock markets, in particular those [...]
2013 Christmas quiz – The Answers December 20, 2013 1. Between spring and autumn 2013, which of these countries received the largest upgrade to its 2013 GDP growth forecast from the IMF? a. Indiab. United Statesc. United Kingdom ANSWER – United Kingdom. In April, the IMF forecast the UK would grow by 0.7 per cent in 2013. By October, the IMF had raised this [...]
2013 Christmas quiz: Test your knowledge December 19, 2013 Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s chief economist, poses the trickiest economics questions of the year 1. Between spring and autumn 2013, which of these countries received the largest upgrade to its 2013 GDP growth forecast from the IMF? a. Indiab. United Statesc. United Kingdom 2. Which luxury asset class saw the biggest increase in value between 2003 [...]
The Long View: Celebrate your festive commercialism – it’s an act of love in a free society December 19, 2013 IT’S A SHAME all the shopping has to spoil the true meaning of Christmas. Or so we get told at this time of year, usually by the same prophets of good cheer who want us to celebrate the season by donning hair shirts and cutting back on the booze. How wrong they are. And how [...]
Don’t let the Christmas curmudgeons dampen your holiday hedonism December 19, 2013 CHRISTMAS has become a magnet for miserabilists. Those sections of society that make a living from fretting over what the rest of us are eating, drinking and doing in our bedrooms are drawn to Christmas like moths to light, spying an opportunity to hector us about our gluttony and hedonism. It’s got to the stage [...]
Letters to the Editor – 20/12 – Cashless society, Tech teaching, Best of Twitter December 19, 2013 Cashless society [Re: With plastic banknotes set to arrive in 2016, will cash soon disappear entirely anyway?, yesterday] I agree that we are moving towards a cashless future. Not only have credit and debit cards already largely taken over from cash (the average consumer now carries just £20 in cash), but our forecasts show that [...]