As EU leaders say Grexit would be catastrophic, can we expect a deal sooner rather than later? May 7, 2015 Christian Schulz is senior economist at Berenberg, says Yes Syriza’s devastating reform reversals and reckless negotiating have weakened Greece so much that it will soon have to accept Troika demands. Empty public coffers, record deposit outflows, dwindling taxpayer morale, the Tsipras recession and the predictable failure to get Russian or Chinese funding have left Athens [...]
General Election 2015: Why I will be voting Conservative, by Morgan McKinley’s Hakan Enver May 6, 2015 The most fiercely contested and unpredictable General Election for a generation has finally arrived. I wanted to share why it is important that the City of London, and in particular the banking and financial services sector, shows support and unity in voting for the Conservative Party today. With no clear frontrunner and despite recent surges [...]
General Election 2015: Why I will be voting Labour, by Simon Franks May 6, 2015 As a nation, today we need to decide which party is most likely to deliver the kind of society we want. The society I want is balanced, dynamic, outward looking, just, entrepreneurial, and meritocratic. A society full of opportunities for all, regardless of where you live, what your parents do, or what type of school [...]
Should Britain leave the EU? Why the economics are still far from settled on Brexit question May 6, 2015 From an Empire where the sun never set, to an EU where the economic sun doesn’t shine; that’s Britain’s geopolitical journey over the past century. So which way now? Can we re-discover the entrepreneurial vision that took a small island to global pre-eminence, or will we remain tied down by a collective loss of confidence? [...]
Would it be legitimate for the second largest party post-election to form a government? May 6, 2015 Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, says Yes The second largest party did indeed win the February 1974 Election (a poll with ominous similarities to 2015), when Harold Wilson won four more seats than Edward Heath but received 230,000 fewer votes. Yet it was not thought a constitutional outrage. Even if a party does come second [...]
Why some foreign investors think an EU referendum would be worth the pain May 5, 2015 The General Election campaign has featured numerous statements from politicians, business leaders and think tanks on the benefits and risks of holding an In/Out referendum so that the people of Britain can decide whether they want to remain in the EU. If we take the potential impact on foreign investment as a guide, EY’s research [...]
Mansion tax: The real losers of Labour’s policy may never be identified May 5, 2015 An exciting email pinged into my inbox at the end of last week. It was a link to the contents of the latest issue of the American Economic Association’s journal Economic Policy. For most people, these publications are not usually as gripping as, say, a Ken Follett novel. But nestling among the thickets of algebra, [...]
Why Crossrail risks being London’s last major infrastructure project May 5, 2015 It is difficult to believe that it was half a decade ago that Liam Byrne – a Treasury minister in Gordon Brown’s government – left that infamous note for his successor. It apparently read, “Dear chief secretary, I’m afraid there is no money left… Good luck.” Of course, Byrne was only half right. Since 2010, [...]
With Australia’s central bank the latest to cut interest rates, is the global recovery at risk? May 5, 2015 Steven Feng, a research fellow at Griffith University Asia Institute, says Yes The global economy risks slipping into a deflationary trap. The US recovery is built on shaky ground, the Eurozone faces an imminent threat to its integrity, hopes for supply-side reform in Japan have faded, and China is in de facto deflation. Emerging economies [...]
The best communicator won each General Election from the last 30 years – here’s why May 5, 2015 Having a party leader who understands how to communicate isn't just a useful bonus – it's probably proved decisive in every General Election of the last 30 years. That magic combination of authenticity, decisiveness and/or likeability has always been critical for the man or woman seeking to get into Number 10 – and it's [...]