After Ted Cruz won Iowa, is this the beginning of the end for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign? February 3, 2016 Ellen Carmichael, president of The Lafayette Company, says Yes. Because Donald Trump’s campaign is self-financed, he has the potential to continue much further in the primary calendar. But I have long said I do not believe he’ll end up as the Republican nominee, as second and third tier candidates drop out and consolidate behind senator Marco [...]
EU referendum: David Cameron still faces a tough task in Europe February 2, 2016 Emergency brakes. Red cards. It isn’t difficult to see why David Cameron is picking the most dramatic policy names when boasting of his government’s alleged progress in changing the terms of Britain’s relationship with the EU. Number 10’s clear preference is for a referendum this June, and all efforts are now focused on presenting a bold [...]
China doesn’t fear a Donald Trump presidency: It relishes the prospect February 2, 2016 There was a game I would play with Beijing taxi drivers when asked where I was from. I gave one of three answers: America, the UK or Iran, to see how their reaction differed. To the latter I received a thumbs up, and gesticulations of a nuclear bomb going off. “Boom kapow!” the driver would [...]
The EU referendum is too important to be left to the BBC February 2, 2016 The EU referendum debate is well underway. Whether we vote this year or next, David Cameron has abandoned any pretence of attempting to fundamentally alter our EU relationship – with previous promises to repatriate employment law, clamp down on free movement, and change EU treaties all jettisoned. What tweaks Cameron is seeking look largely cosmetic or [...]
London congestion: The capital is heading towards gridlock unless the next mayor takes radical action February 2, 2016 Of all the issues facing the next mayor of London, one of the most pressing is the growing problem of congestion on the city’s roads. London’s roads carry 80 per cent of all passenger journeys and 90 per cent of freight in the capital, yet attract a fraction of the attention given to the Tube and [...]
Is the Prime Minister right to make migration central to his EU renegotiation demands? February 2, 2016 Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, says Yes. David Cameron is doing the right thing – but running one hell of a risk. We can debate forever whether the Great British public are right to worry so much about immigration, but they do. Many voters also view the EU through the [...]
Snooper’s Charter will undermine UK tech firms February 1, 2016 London’s technology scene is booming. To get an understanding of the scale of this growth, just consider that investment in the sector was ten times higher in 2015 than it was in 2010, with over $2bn (£1.4bn) of venture capital invested in the city last year. Half of this came from the UK, with 29 [...]
The EU’s mask has slipped: The dogma of political union is all that matters February 1, 2016 I have been fascinated by strategic simulations, or war games, since I was called upon to play them for various American diplomatic and intelligence services during my years in Washington. Games – if they are well enough designed to approximate reality and have good enough players – almost always get at hidden truths, and tend [...]
Falling oil prices are an opportunity for the City to help the Gulf States diversify February 1, 2016 I returned last week from an eight-day business visit to the Gulf, during which I moved between Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Every lord mayor in recent memory has made a point of visiting the Gulf, not just because of its economic importance but because the City can support the region’s countries in [...]
Cash isn’t dead and it isn’t even dying: Society won’t accept the demise of the humble banknote February 1, 2016 Seemingly every other day we see yet another article forecasting the death of cash and telling us that we will soon be making everyday transactions with wearable payment technology. Of course, the more tech-savvy of us probably will be, and many already are, but is the general UK consumer really ready and willing to adopt [...]