Following the High Court’s ruling on Article 50, is an early general election now a distinct possibility? November 3, 2016 Alex Morton, director at Field Consulting, says Yes. Prime Minister Theresa May should call a general election in the spring, and the High Court ruling gives her even more of an excuse to do so. The UK economy is going to turn in the next few years, regardless of Brexit. By 2017, we will be eight [...]
Parliament will now debate whether to invoke Article 50: So what? November 3, 2016 The government has taken one in the eye. This will please many observers, but I’m afraid, if you’re one of the many rejoicing on social media now, this result will be short-lived. I confess to thinking that the decision is an odd one. After all, two previous legal challenges brought by the McWhirter twins (yes, [...]
Why Trump could be in for a thumping victory November 3, 2016 As if 2016 hadn’t already provided enough reasons for investors to panic, a late narrowing of opinion polls ahead of next week’s US election is sending shivers through trading flaws. Could Donald Trump steal an incredible (and, in the opinion of many, terrifying) victory next Tuesday? It remains unlikely – but less unlikely than in recent [...]
National insurance is a complicated relic: Axe it in three simple steps November 3, 2016 If we were designing a new tax system from scratch, would anyone seriously suggest running three slightly different income tax systems at the same time? The fact that the government does precisely this is a relic of the past that has no place in a modern tax system. The combination of charges – income tax, plus employer’s [...]
Money supply growth suggests we’re still too pessimistic about the British economy November 2, 2016 The latest broad money supply M4x figures from the Bank of England (up to the end of September this year) paint a picture of an economy getting stronger, not weaker. To understand why, we need a short digression into economic theory. Broad money supply growth provides an insight into the outlook for nominal GDP growth [...]
The age of deglobalisation is here: Now we must face up to its implications November 2, 2016 Politics is never certain. Yet from Brexit and wider Eurozone disquiet, to the isolationist rhetoric permeating the US elections, one thing is clear: the former mantras of globalisation and deregulation are facing increasing opposition. Voters across the developed world are expressing the view that the benefits of operating at an international scale have been offset by [...]
As the typical UK house price rises to six times annual earnings, should young people forget about ever buying? November 2, 2016 Ben Southwood, head of research at the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. Unless something changes, few of today’s youth will ever own their own homes – there is simply not enough housing to go round. Home ownership has been falling, generation by generation. When they were 45, around 80 per cent of the cohort born in [...]
Making millennials happy is good for business November 2, 2016 I know what you’re thinking: another column about millennials. This one, I hope, strikes more of a chord because it’s about their impact on your business and how to respond. This generation is shaking up the workforce in a way not seen for decades. Our research suggests that three quarters of managers see the challenge [...]
TUI must not get clouded by Brexit drama if it wants to woo more holidaymakers November 2, 2016 As the TUI Group embarks on a Europe-wide advertising campaign aimed at unifying the travel brand, it’s a good time to examine how the company has been faring. Recently, the group saw its share price rise following a better-than-expected outlook for its full-year earnings. YouGov tracking data suggests TUI’s brand Thomson has performed admirably in the midst [...]
Autumn Statement 2016: Should Hammond try his luck at some radical tax simplification? November 2, 2016 Scrap corporation tax. Scrap council tax. Scrap capital gains tax. And inheritance tax too. And business rates, the TV licence fee, the apprenticeship levy, all stamp duties, alcohol duties, tobacco duties – get rid of them all! These are the somewhat provocative proposals from a new report covered on today’s front page of City A.M. [...]