It’s not all bad: UK construction output grew more than expected in November December 2, 2016 Output in the UK's construction sector grew faster than expected in November, figures published today showed – suggesting things might not be as bad as they seemed in the sector. Markit's purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the construction sector rose to 52.8 in November, above expectations of 52.2 and above October's figure of 52.6. Any figure [...]
Editor’s notes: The uncertain art of measuring the UK’s economic uncertainty December 2, 2016 You may not have seen it on the News at Ten but Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Kristin Forbes delivered a fascinating speech last week on the nature of economic uncertainty and how best it can be measured. As Donald Trump said when he delivered his victory speech, “it’s a complicated business, folks”. [...]
How to prepare your portfolio for inflation December 2, 2016 | City Talk Concerns about inflation were already on the rise. Donald Trump’s victory in the US election has further stoked expectations that price pressure, absent in most Western economies since the financial crisis, may make a return in 2017 and beyond. The basics Inflation is a measure of how fast the prices of goods and services are [...]
The ‘75%’ chance that the Santa Rally exists December 2, 2016 | City Talk Stock markets are more likely to rise in December than any other month, according to analysis of nearly three decades of data. The analysis conducted by Schroders, which covers the world’s largest markets, adds to the debate over the existence of the “Santa Rally”, an alleged effect often dismissed by seasoned investors. Our analysis measured two [...]
Donald Trump’s unhappy fate is to oversee a financial crisis far worse than the last December 2, 2016 An earthquake doesn’t care if you’re progressive or populist. It destroys your house all the same. Likewise a financial crisis is indifferent to a politician’s policy mix. Systemic crises proceed according to their own dynamic based on the array of agents in a system, and systemic scale. The tempo of recent crises in 1994, 1998, and [...]
UK immigration reached 650,000, its highest levels ever, in the year before the Brexit vote, but cuts to immigration could harm the public finances December 1, 2016 Immigration to the UK reached 650,000, the highest level estimate ever recorded, in the year before the Brexit vote, but influential economists have warned that attempts to reduce net migration could harm Britain’s public finances and even result in higher taxes. European Union immigration also reached its highest ever level, at 284,000, an increase of [...]
Oil prices hit $50 around the world as Opec’s production cut decision continues to make waves in markets worldwide December 1, 2016 The trading frenzy sparked by Opec’s historic deal on Wednesday to agree a production cut has continued to make its presence felt throughout markets worldwide, with oil-related shares gaining further and futures prices rising beyond the levels seen after the announcement. Prices for both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded well above $50 per [...]
Pound shoots up as Davis says UK could pay for single market access December 1, 2016 The British pound rose sharply to break $1.26 after Brexit secretary David Davis said in a speech the UK may continue to pay money into the European Union budget in order to preserve Single Market access. The pound/dollar spot exchange rate had opened the day at $1.2506, but rose sharply this morning to reach intraday highs [...]
US manufacturing PMI shows world’s biggest economy is strengthening before Trump presidency December 1, 2016 The US economy’s growth is gaining pace according to an important measure of manufacturing activity, further signalling the strength of the nation’s recovery as the Barack Obama administration comes to an end. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.1 in November, an increase of 0.7 percentage points since last month’s survey, compiled by [...]
Eurozone unemployment falls below 10 per cent for the first time since 2011 December 1, 2016 Eurozone unemployment has fallen below 10 per cent for the first time since 2009, as the European Commission revised down September’s unemployment rate to 9.9 per cent. The unemployment rate for October now stands at 9.8 per cent, 0.8 points lower than the same point last year. The figures still show a large deficit in [...]