CBI: May must secure support for Brexit deal for UK economy to post moderate growth December 6, 2018 The UK economy will have a tough time posting even moderate growth next year without an orderly Brexit, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) warned today. The CBI’s forecast of 1.3 per cent growth in 2018, 1.4 per cent in 2019 and 1.6 per cent in 2020, a slightly lower set of predictions than the [...]
We have paved the way for the next financial crisis December 6, 2018 Optimists believe that the last decade of roiling financial crisis and austerity is behind us, and that current fears of trade war, Brexit, populism, and market crashes are overblown. They hope for a global economy poised for many years of growth, increasing personal wealth and prosperity, and political stability. Sadly, hope is never a strategy. Realists, [...]
Tariff man Trump is the most economically illiterate President in US history December 6, 2018 America and China may have called a truce in the trade war, but nobody seems to have told the President. On Tuesday, Donald Trump tweeted: “I am a tariff man. When countries come in to raid the great wealth of our nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so.” I don’t have [...]
Bank of England delays cyber stress test as it focuses on Brexit December 5, 2018 The Bank of England (BoE) will delay work on a cyber stress test for banks as it focuses on Brexit preparations, according to minutes published today. The BoE’s financial policy committee (FPC) said it will put off a scheme to test how banks react to cyber attacks, which was due to launch early next year. [...]
Housebuilders lead the FTSE risers as no-deal Brexit risk fades December 5, 2018 Britain's largest housebuilders saw the value of their shares jump this afternoon as the prospect of a no-deal Brexit began to recede. Property heavyweights such as Berkeley Group, Persimmon and Redrow were among the top 10 FTSE risers today as a frantic 24 hours of political tussling in Westminster fuelled the possibility of a “softer” Brexit [...]
JP Morgan raises probability of no-Brexit to 40 per cent as chance of no deal shrinks to 10 per cent December 5, 2018 There is now a 40 per cent chance of the UK staying in the European Union, according to a research note published by a JP Morgan economist this morning. Citing the European Court of Justice’s top legal advisor, who said yesterday that Britain could unilaterally perform a U-turn on Article 50 if it wanted, JP Morgan economist [...]
UK economy ‘flatlining’ as services sector records weakest growth since the aftermath of the EU referendum December 5, 2018 Business activity fell to its lowest rate of growth since the aftermath of the Brexit vote, according to a closely followed measure of services sector activity. The slowdown in both ongoing business and new work saw the UK services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) hit 50.4 last month, down from 52.2 in October to count as [...]
From Northern Rock to lunch tables, no one is immune from the herd mentality December 5, 2018 The Bank of England and Federal Reserve held a two-day conference last week in London on big data and machine learning. All very interesting stuff. There was an intriguing vignette as we emerged from the conference room for the frugal lunch on the first day. Straight ahead was a table with sandwiches, fruit and the like. [...]
Let’s look beyond Brexit to a world of British opportunities December 5, 2018 Today, we assume our positions leading Britain’s £40bn maritime sector and count ourselves among its 1,000,000 employees. Britain is an island, a maritime nation, and our sector fuels trade with the rest of the world – some 95 per cent of imports and exports, worth over £500bn. For almost three years, national debate has been [...]
Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King savages May’s Brexit deal December 4, 2018 The former governor of the Bank of England Lord Mervyn King has slammed Theresa May’s Brexit deal and implicitly criticised his successor Mark Carney. King called the withdrawal agreement "incompetence of a high order". “It simply beggars belief that a government could be hell-bent on a deal that hands over £39 billion, while giving the EU both [...]