JP Morgan raises probability of no-Brexit to 40 per cent as chance of no deal shrinks to 10 per cent December 5, 2018 There is now a 40 per cent chance of the UK staying in the European Union, according to a research note published by a JP Morgan economist this morning. Citing the European Court of Justice’s top legal advisor, who said yesterday that Britain could unilaterally perform a U-turn on Article 50 if it wanted, JP Morgan economist [...]
UK economy ‘flatlining’ as services sector records weakest growth since the aftermath of the EU referendum December 5, 2018 Business activity fell to its lowest rate of growth since the aftermath of the Brexit vote, according to a closely followed measure of services sector activity. The slowdown in both ongoing business and new work saw the UK services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) hit 50.4 last month, down from 52.2 in October to count as [...]
From Northern Rock to lunch tables, no one is immune from the herd mentality December 5, 2018 The Bank of England and Federal Reserve held a two-day conference last week in London on big data and machine learning. All very interesting stuff. There was an intriguing vignette as we emerged from the conference room for the frugal lunch on the first day. Straight ahead was a table with sandwiches, fruit and the like. [...]
Let’s look beyond Brexit to a world of British opportunities December 5, 2018 Today, we assume our positions leading Britain’s £40bn maritime sector and count ourselves among its 1,000,000 employees. Britain is an island, a maritime nation, and our sector fuels trade with the rest of the world – some 95 per cent of imports and exports, worth over £500bn. For almost three years, national debate has been [...]
Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King savages May’s Brexit deal December 4, 2018 The former governor of the Bank of England Lord Mervyn King has slammed Theresa May’s Brexit deal and implicitly criticised his successor Mark Carney. King called the withdrawal agreement "incompetence of a high order". “It simply beggars belief that a government could be hell-bent on a deal that hands over £39 billion, while giving the EU both [...]
Mark Carney: Bank scenario was not an ‘exam crisis’ December 4, 2018 Bank of England governor Mark Carney rebuffed his critics in front of an audience of MPs this morning after insisting that his recent doomsday scenario was not an “exam crisis”. The Threadneedle street boss said that criticism of the Bank’s decision to make a report on a worst-case scenario – which warned that the pound could fall [...]
Will markets have a jolly festive season this year? December 4, 2018 It's December and time to deck the halls with boughs of holly. Or in CNBC’s case, it’s time for the business channel to be immersed in chatter of a potential Santa Claus rally and 2019 fortunes. Santa’s performance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been fairly reliable over the past five years, with investors rewarded [...]
Voting with your wallet is the ultimate consumer power December 4, 2018 The Labour party leadership believes that income inequality is far too high. As socialists, they think of income as centrally distributed, like slices of cake at a birthday party. Top company executives have seen sharp increases in pay in recent decades, so in Labour’s view, that means less sponge and icing for workers. The cutter [...]
The G20 was a temporary truce, not the end of Trump’s trade war December 4, 2018 It would be easy to see last weekend’s G20 meeting as heralding a thaw in the US-China trade war. But sadly, it hasn’t. There are some positives. It looks increasingly likely that the US will not put in place a fresh 10-25 per cent tariff hike in January on $250bn of Chinese exports, as most had [...]
The City is the goose that lays the golden eggs December 3, 2018 The Financial Conduct Authority has taken its boldest step yet into the debate about banks' Brexit contingency plans. In a letter to lenders the City watchdog warned that it will not accept “steps being taken which could expose clients or markets to unacceptable risks.” Specifically, the FCA warns that they will intervene if they suspect [...]