Brexit would launch the UK’s economy into a year-long “DIY recession”, according to new research from the Treasury, with GDP possibly dropping by as much as six per cent.
The controversial research published today warns that a vote to leave would represent “an immediate and profound” shock for the economy.
Speaking today, George Osborne is expected to say: “With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession?
“Does Britain really want this DIY recession?”
The Treasury analysis looked at two scenarios, with the more cautious assessment suggesting that GDP would remain 3.6 per cent lower after two years, while an extreme scenario, would see GDP drop by six per cent.
Chancellor George Osborne will add: “It’s only been eight years since Britain entered the deepest recession our country has seen since the Second World War. Every part of our country suffered. The British people have worked so hard to get our country back on track. Do we want to throw it all away?
"With exactly one month to go to the referendum, the British people must ask themselves this question: can we knowingly vote for a recession? Does Britain really want this DIY recession? Because that’s what the evidence shows we’ll get if we vote to leave the EU."
The chancellor is set to admit that "we’ve got improvements to make to the EU" but will add that the government is clear about what the future holds.
"If we remain, major British car manufacturers will go on selling hundreds of thousands of cars to Europe tariff-free.If we remain, British farmers will go on selling over 150,000 tonnes of beef and lamb to Europe tariff-free.
"That is the brighter future on offer for our country,” Osborne will say.