Brace yourself, this is going to get ugly
Jacob Rees-Mogg described last night’s successful attempt by MPs to seize control of today’s parliamentary activity as “constitutionally improper” – which is as close as he gets to a foul-mouthed outburst.
As leader of the House of Commons it is his job to navigate legislation through parliament, but he has been temporarily sidelined in favour of a coalition of MPs so opposed to a no-deal Brexit (or any kind of Brexit, in many cases) that they will today begin legislating to force Boris Johnson to (in his own words) head for Brussels and beg for an extension to the Brexit deadline.
There will now almost certainly be a General Election and the only question is whether it will come before or after 31 October. Either way, it will be an election that offers a choice between a no-deal exit with Johnson or a Labour government led by Marxists Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. That is where we are after nearly three and a half years of debate, delay and distraction.
You can debate the wisdom of Johnson’s plan to use no-deal as leverage in order to secure better terms, and you may even doubt the sincerity of his efforts to do so. But if a no-deal Brexit does come to pass, you may find some relief in the observation that, as far as it can, the City has prepared itself for a hard Brexit.
Preparedness, however, should not be mistaken for ambivalence. Resources, money and energy have all been diverted from otherwise productive ends to pre-empt an abrupt and dramatic change in our political, economic and regulatory relationship with the EU.
Despite the pragmatism of regulators, who have struck sensible agreement with EU counterparts to minimise or mitigate immediate contractual or trading concerns, the economic and market reaction to a no-deal exit would likely be significant.
The other path, the one that leads away from all of this (at least as far as a second referendum) will be built by Corbyn and promises a government hostile to the City, reckless with the economy and terrifying in its socialist radicalism.
As Ireland’s central bank concluded recently, the City will remain Europe’s leading financial centre whatever form Brexit takes. They haven’t modelled the City’s prospects under a Corbyn government but it’s safe to assume it would not fare well.
Rees-Mogg closed the debate last night with a warning of the constitutional chaos that rebel MPs could unleash. The chaos of a Corbyn government looms larger. Whatever emerges from this dramatic week, Britain’s political melodrama is far from over.
Main image credit: Getty