Balding’s Bonfire can light up Chester in the Dee Stakes
THE wet weather continues to cause havoc with the racing calendar and the atrocious ground all over the country makes betting pretty unattractive at present. There are so many non-runners at the meetings that do survive meaning constant rule fours and changing each-way terms.
That said, Andrew Balding’s BONFIRE looks a rock-solid proposition in the Dee Stakes (2.05pm) at Chester this afternoon. The lightly-raced son of Manduro can book his place in next month’s Investec Derby by landing the spoils this afternoon and I only hope that the other five declared runners stand their ground so we can get a better price.
My selection was an impressive winner of a soft-ground maiden at Salisbury on his racecourse debut and followed that up with an unlucky third in a French Group One in his final start as a two-year-old. The form of that race is beginning to work out well as the winner French Fifteen was only narrowly denied in last weekend’s 2000 Guineas. The rain-softened ground should prove ideal and Bonfire is a confident pick.
There probably isn’t a racecourse in the country where being drawn low in a sprint is more important than Chester and I’m delighted that BALLESTEROS has landed trap three in the 3.05pm contest. Brian Meehan’s charge handled similar ground at Sandown last time and can track across and grab the rail early. He will be very difficult to reel in and I don’t expect him to be caught.
The big betting race of the weekend is the Victoria Cup (3.25pm) at Ascot tomorrow, but there has to be a doubt that the meeting will even go ahead. However, if it does, conditions will be very testing and you need to find horses that relish soft ground.
One such contender is Brian Ellison’s GLOBAL VILLAGE who ran really well to finish third behind Captain Bertie and Fury at Newbury last time. The mile just seemed to stretch him that day so the drop back to a stiff seven furlongs is ideal and he loves to get his toe in. I still think he’s well-handicapped and he looks a cracking each-way bet at 12/1.
If Ascot doesn’t go ahead, Lingfield has switched its Derby Trial card to the all-weather, so there will be some decent action from the Surrey track. The Oaks Trial (2.40pm) is a difficult puzzle to solve, but Ralph Beckett is a master trainer of fillies and he thinks the world of COLIMA who won her sole start at Nottingham in November. Vow was impressive on her debut at Newbury and she is the one I am most worried about.
The Derby Trial takes place half an hour later at 3.10pm and this is another race which is all about potential. Rougemont is the highest-rated following his win in the big Sales race at Newmarket earlier this season, but he is best fresh and I’m happy to take him on. Goldoni won the Investec Derby Trial at Epsom last month and he should run well, but I prefer the chances of MAIN SEQUENCE.
David Lanigan has made a cracking start to the season and this unbeaten son of Aldebaran has always been highly regarded. He’s entered in next week’s Dante, but I think he has a far better chance in this race and he should go very close.
You can follow me on Twitter @BillEsdaile.
Pointers…
BONFIRE 2.05pm Chester (today)
BALLESTEROS 3.05pm Chester (today)
COLIMA 2.40pm Lingfield (tomorrow)
MAIN SEQUENCE 3.10pm Lingfield (tomorrow)
GLOBAL VILLAGE e/w 3.25pm Ascot(tomorrow)