A triple threat of a worsening cost of living crisis, higher interest rates and a pulling of government Covid-19 support will throw the UK economy back into an anaemic state, according to new research published today.
Swelling energy bills and rising costs for basic necessities will cause households on tight budgets to rein in spending, according to predictions made by accountancy firm PwC.
Weaker spending from low income households will clamp down on the UK’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
The forecast underlines the impact soaring inflation is having on the economy’s capacity for growth.
The UK economy is heavily reliant on consumer spending to generate output, meaning a reduction in spending from low income households would constrain growth.
Brits living on tight budgets “will feel the pinch from a combination of rising inflation, higher interest rates, and fiscal changes” and a looming 1.25 percentage point national insurance hike, cautioned Hoa Duong, economist at PwC.
PwC’s experts said richer households would be able to shake off the impact of rising prices due to them having greater bandwidth to absorb a higher cost of living.
A surge in spending “will likely be concentrated on higher income households” as a result, the firm said.
Inflation in the UK has taken off in recent months, triggered by a combination of global supply chains breaking down, soaring wholesale energy costs and rising commodity prices.
The Office for National Statistics estimates prices are 4.2 per cent higher than they were a year ago, the highest rate of inflation in nearly a decade.
Yet, PwC expects the rate to scale even further and hit its highest level in three decades next spring.
“The rise in the energy price cap and the reversal of the VAT cuts for hospitality and tourism create a perfect storm that is set to push headline inflation rates to around five per cent and six per cent,” the firm said.
The downbeat projections will be a cause for concern for the Bank of England, which has a mandate to keep inflation at two per cent.
The Old Lady has come under intense scrutiny for keeping interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent despite expecting inflation to rise to more than double its target.
Officials on Threadneedle Street will announce their next decision on rates on December 16. Earlier this month, they stunned markets when they left rates unchanged.